The future of offensive football

Passing is king, and defenses at all levels of football are trying to force teams to run. What does that mean for the future of offense?

Slinging it against the rotations

(Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

As Galina outlined in his piece on the growth of two-high defenses in the NFL, Quarters coverage could be how these teams handle the passing game on the back end. But as we just uncovered, there are ways to attack Cover 4 in the passing game, which could lead to defenses showing the offense Quarters/two-high before the snap and then spinning into something after the play begins, hoping to bait the quarterback into a mistake:

Quarters could be an answer. After all, we saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers eliminate the potent Kansas City Chiefs offense by playing quarters variants in Super Bowl 55. Last season, we also saw the highest number of quarters-coverage snaps against passing plays since we began charting in 2014. So, it’s an excellent place to start.

The other answer is staying in a two-high look long enough and then spinning a safety down after the snap as a robber but still playing either Cover 1 or Cover 3. These types of coverages give the defense layers.

If a defense plays Cover 1 and rushes only four players, there will be a free “rat” player looking to eliminate difficult routes.

That leads to a perfect example, highlighted by Galina, of the Dolphins spinning from two-high into a single-high look and spooking Jimmy Garoppolo, leading to an interception:

Smart offenses will need to anticipate such rotations from the defense and have a better Plan B than “have your quarterback spin wildly into throwing a vertical late in the down with a free safety reading his eyes.” Or, maybe, a better Plan B than Garoppolo at quarterback, but that is a discussion for another time.

One such answer? Things we have already covered in whole or in part. If the defense wants to show two-high before the play and then spin into single-high, attacking on the outside with hitch routes or speed-out routes are a reasonable response. Why? Because the cornerback has no deep help and has to respect the vertical stem, so hitch routes and speed-outs are a great way to attack cornerbacks who are afraid to get beat deep.

Another way is with four verticals. Yes, everyone’s favorite concept. But if the defense is willing to spin into single-high at the snap, then those inside vertical routes up the seam are perfect for the offense. That gives the QB the ability to manipulate the single safety to one of the seam routes, and throw to the other.

Take this example from Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, against the Saints. Before the play, the defense shows Cousins two-high safeties, and the Vikings are going to run four verticals:

But just because New Orleans shows two-high does not mean they are staying in it, and the Saints spin their safeties at the snap:

Cousins reads that and does exactly what was outlined above, looking first to his tight ends on the left before flashing his eyes to the right to hit rookie Justin Jefferson for a big gain:

From the end zone angle you get a glimpse of Cousins first looking on the left, before coming back to the right to hit his rookie receiver.

Beyond four verticals, another design previously discussed offers a solution when the defense rotates to single-high. That solution is Pout, the post/out combination. Only this time, the out route might be the quarterback’s best friend. Take this example from Wilson and BYU, as he has to react to that post-snap rotation from two-high into single-high against, of all teams, Coastal Carolina. Here is the look before the play:

You can see the Chanticleers lined up with two safeties deep before the play. Only as we have alluded to, they will spin this into a single-high safety look at the snap:

Now watch as this comes together:

This should be the closing argument, right? Because not only do you have a play that works against Quarters coverage providing a solution when the defense spins into single-high, but do you see what Wilson does on this play? He carries out the fake with his running back to one side of the field before spinning back to the right to throw the out. This holds the safety who is dropping down in place, allowing the out route to come open.

Were it not for the holding penalty on this play that negates the catch-and-run touchdown, this would be like the movie “PCU,” where the character Pigman — who is writing his senior thesis on the “Caine-Hackman Theory,” which is the notion that at any point in time a movie starring either Michael Caine or Gene Hackman is on television — sees “A Bridge too Far” come on TV, a movie starring both actors. This is the closing argument.

Only there is one more thing to ponder, perhaps the answer that has been staring us in the face the whole time. The way offenses might eventually counter what defenses are trying to do against them.