OK, we’ve all had a few days to get excited and a little bit carried away. But let’s strip away the headlines for a second, and I’ll play the villain who is threatening to ruin the fun a little bit with a reality check.
The news on Monday that Andretti Cadillac – or Andretti Formula Racing LLP – has been approved as a new entrant in Formula 1 by the FIA was certainly not a bad thing for the team’s hopes, but at the same time it was fully expected and changes nothing when it comes to the chances of us actually seeing an 11th team on the grid.
Ever since FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem had made a public statement of support reacting to the news that Andretti and Cadillac were joining forces for a bid, it has looked likely that we’d get to this stage.
The process that was then opened up to analyze whether a new team could enter F1 clearly came with Andretti in mind. That’s not to discount anyone else, but Andretti’s plans were either formed after discussing with the FIA about the potential of the governing body inviting an Expression of Interest, or triggered that happening. Either way, the omens were good.
Or as one of the rival bidders for a spot on the grid put it, even more than good.
“To be honest, I feel like even though the process they went through, has a facade of transparency and all the other stuff that it was always going to be Andretti,” Rodin Cars founder David Dicker says after missing out. “I mean, some of the statements from personnel from the FIA just really made you think ‘Well, yeah…’
“And look, he’s been at every race for the last year, and I don’t think anyone else even had a prayer of getting in, to be honest.”
On whether he felt the process was opened up for Andretti’s bid, he added: “It’s hard not to come to that conclusion.”
But that doesn’t detract from what a strong bid Andretti has put together. A very capable racing outfit already, it has been investing in the infrastructure and personnel required to be ready to enter the sport at the earliest possible opportunity if given the green light.
Up to now that target date has been 2025 and it’s not by accident, with the current Concorde Agreement – and the $200 million anti-dilution fee that it includes – running up to and including that season. As of 2026, those goalposts might well have moved.
And the sounds coming out of Formula One Management (FOM) – the commercial rights holder – have so far suggested not only could that amount change from 2026 onwards, but that it isn’t keen on expanding the number of teams beyond the current 10.
Michael Andretti’s public criticism of that stance from FOM and the existing teams was perhaps not the smartest move earlier this year, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a fair point: something Dicker agrees with now that he’s out of the running.
“I only have to go by what I read in the press,” Dicker says. “And what you read in the press is the F1 guys have got a closed shop, and they want to keep it closed, and they’re not remotely interested in bringing anyone else in. That’s just the way it is. It’s not exactly unusual, it tends to be the case – they’ve got a cozy club there, and they don’t want to change.”
That’s the big hurdle that Andretti will now have to overcome. The FIA is just one aspect of the onboarding process and a simple one in many ways, analyzing the ability of a team to meet the criteria it has set out and then passing it on for more complex discussions to be had.
There’s no set timeline for when FOM will engage with Andretti to talk about any potential commercial terms, but the initial stages are unlikely to include any negotiations. The dossier delivered to the FIA by Andretti was wide-ranging and hugely in-depth, and will be evaluated by FOM first to understand what the iconic name believes it will be bringing to the party.
From there, questions are likely to be asked of Andretti but it won’t be a decision taken by just FOM alone. Input will come from all kinds of stakeholders – from existing teams (gulp) to race promoters – to build a picture of what an 11-team championship could and should look like, and understand where support or opposition lies.
In many ways, it’s an escape route for FOM. Already starting from a position of being against expansion, it can see whether that is a view shared by many other interested parties aside from the FIA. If so, then it can shift a little bit of the blame for denying Andretti’s bid to a wider collective. But if it finds it is alone in not wanting to add to the grid then it will have to seriously consider changing that initial stance.
The aforementioned Concorde Agreement could also come into play here. Whether you agree or not with the $200m figure that’s required to be paid at present, that was finalized amidst the COVID-19 pandemic back in 2020, and nobody could have accurately planned for the landscape if a new team was looking to enter in late 2023.
So FOM and the other stakeholders have the potential to discuss terms that they deem acceptable today, with the concrete option of Andretti’s bid sitting in front of them. And those discussions would not only take place simultaneously to FOM’s with Andretti – and potentially even influence them -–but a Concorde Agreement is far more detailed than just new teams and therefore likely to take much longer.
The knock-on impact means it’s unlikely that a quick decision will be made, and discussions on multiple fronts could extend beyond the end of this year and into 2024.
Given the “easy” bit of gaining FIA approval took nearly eight months from initial opening to this week’s announcement, it’s not a surprise there’s still a long way to go. But at least now Andretti can firmly outline its case to FOM and can prepare to try and clear that final hurdle.
How high it is eventually set remains to be seen. But it’s definitely going to be high.