The Atlanta Falcons have the third-longest postseason drought in the NFL. At 5-3 and sitting atop the NFC South, that might change very soon.
Atlanta’s 31-26 road victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday puts the team at 4-0 in the division, highlighted by a sweep of the Bucs.
With the Carolina Panthers stuck in a lost season and the New Orleans Saints losing six-straight games, the Falcons are in confident control of their destiny as November approaches for the first time in forever.
Of course, it’s not unlike Atlanta to have the wheels fall off at the worst possible moment when things are looking up. While that’s fully attributed to human error and unlucky bounces as opposed to some sort of overarching franchise plague, these Falcons look up to the task to make it to the playoffs.
The NFL is a fickle beast, and it’s always possible the team’s defensive issues, particularly on its front seven, could spark a second-half backslide. However, these Falcons seem resilient and battle-tested. Only one of their five wins came with a cushion, with the other four quite literally all coming down to the final play of the game.
That might make some people wary about the nature in which Atlanta is getting by in terms of sustainability, but 5-3 records don’t happen by accident. There are 12 teams in the NFL right now with five or more wins: the Bills, Broncos, Chiefs, Commanders, Eagles, Falcons Lions, Packers, Ravens, Steelers, Texans and Vikings.
How many of them have had to learn to win like the Falcons have?
The Falcons have beaten one of those teams (Eagles), got close against another (Chiefs) and lost a fluky Week 1 game to the Steelers. We’re not sure how the team fares against those other opponents, as they’ll see three of them before the end of the season (Broncos, Commanders, Vikings). However, who’s to say the 5-3 Falcons aren’t at least on the same playing field as the NFL’s top contenders right now? It’s not to suggest Atlanta could waltz into Detroit and school the Lions, but this Falcons team hearkens back to some of its best years in the last decade much more than some of its worst.
The team’s sixth-rated offense in DVOA is the main reason for optimism with Atlanta, as quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrived with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson throughout October (save the Seattle Seahawks game). Cousins isn’t immune to a pumpkin performance like that, but he’s largely been excellent. The team is getting its best players on offense involved game-to-game. The offensive line is weathering injuries and hasn’t skipped a beat. Robinson’s play calls compliment the team’s arsenal of talent with formations that put them in position to succeed. Cousins really is ripping it after a slow start to the season coming off his Achilles’ injury.
Sure, the defense, 22nd in DVOA, isn’t going to open a lot of eyes. Defensive stars like safeties Jessie Bates III and Justin Simmons and cornerback A.J. Terrell are making huge plays to buoy that side of the ball, and cornerback Mike Hughes is quietly having a resurgent season and perhaps his best of his career. Also, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is still causing problems when he can. However, the struggles with defensive front seven outside of Jarrett will grab the headlines.
Much will be made about the pass-rush, as is fair. Atlanta is last in the NFL in sacks. The New York Giants lead the league in sacks with 31, and the Falcons have six. However, the Falcons have five wins, while the Giants currently have two. New York probably would trade some of those sacks for wins, but the Falcons are going to have to get after the quarterback more to really contend in postseason football if it can win the division.
It’s kind of amazing to consider its massive Tampa Bay win came on a day when the defensive line basically left quarterback Baker Mayfield untouched and unbothered for most of the afternoon.
The Falcons won Sunday despite zero QB hits or sacks on 51 Baker dropbacks
They are 5-3 despite being dead last in sacks (6) and pressure % per @NextGenStats
— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) October 28, 2024
To be sure, the Falcons are in imperfect bunch. There are more complete teams in the NFL this season that stand higher chances of winning a title. However, there is beauty in those imperfections for Atlanta.
The team is winning games despite not being the best version of itself. In the NFL, there really is no such thing as a fraudulent record. If you’re winning, you’re winning. The only way to mess that up for youself is to stop winning. If the team can tighten up on defense, the ceiling gets higher.
The Seahawks loss shows what happens on a bad day for the Falcons; they can get outclassed if Cousins is having a bad day and the defense can’t get timely stops. However, that’s more an anomaly this season than the successes. In the wins, this team looks fierce on offense and just competent enough on defense, thanks in large part to Bates, Terrell, Simmons, Hughes and Jarrett.
The Falcons might be living on the edge right now, but they’re also in the midst of their most dynamic season in years. Atlanta is a playoff contender in a way it hasn’t been since 2017. That’s cause for celebration if you wear if you’re emotionally invested in Atlanta football. The Falcons are fun again. Maybe not complete, but pretty darn good and really, really, really fun.
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