It was not even 24 hours after the Belgian Grand Prix had ended, when members of Formula 1 teams were preparing to take a few weeks off during August, that Carlos Sainz finally announced his next move.
Sainz had been described as the cork in the bottle by Kevin Magnussen – on the record, and in sometimes more colorful language by multiple other drivers off it – when it came to the driver market, with so many teams showing interest and making offers to the Spaniard.
The final three it realistically came down to were Williams, Alpine and Stake/Sauber/Audi, and while Sainz’s decision has brought clarity to the situation at the first of that trio, the other two still have vacancies that need filling.
And while decisions may be imminent as the paddock reconvenes in Zandvoort this weekend, there’s also a chance there’s going to be less of a rush as neither team appears to have been able to secure their first choice.
If we start with the more competitive of the two at the moment – and fair play for putting itself in that position given the ongoing off-track instability and where it started this season – Alpine might finally be about to promote one of its junior drivers into a race seat.
It’s always tough to compare drivers, but the success of Oscar Piastri after a year in the reserve role at Enstone shows that it can prepare young talent even if it hasn’t always then handled their contracts effectively, and Jack Doohan has been following in his fellow Australian’s footsteps over the past two years.
This year is far more similar to Piastri’s final year with Alpine, as Doohan isn’t racing but solely focused on the reserve and development role, and he has made a strong case for a chance in F1 with testing outings on top of some of his previous F2 performances.
But he’s not alone on that list, with Valtteri Bottas still on the market and an experienced option should Alpine want to head that way, and his current teammate Zhou Guanyu a former Renault junior who never got a shot in a race seat with the team. The latter could bring backing as well as some experience now, but would also be a slightly harsh call over Doohan.
Mick Schumacher has ties through Alpine’s hypercar program and will also be a consideration, and Kevin Magnussen will also be a free agent if the team wants more experience and doesn’t get Bottas.
The future Audi project has been a bit of a mess over the past 18 months and it has shown through the managerial changes that have taken place recently, and the fact it couldn’t convince Sainz to join.
But the hirings of Mattia Binotto and Jonathan Wheatley are strong ones, and all of the drivers above will hold some interest in being part of the transition next year. Sebastian Vettel’s name has also been linked with a return to F1 with Audi, although Helmut Marko clarified he was one of multiple he mentioned as attractive German drivers that could partner Nico Hulkenberg.
Such is the lack of clear expectations over where the team goes next after missing out on Sainz, however, that even the name of Formula 2 title contender Gabriel Bortoleto has cropped up in passing, with the Brazilian impressing in his rookie year but part of the McLaren young driver setup.
The lack of firm interest from Mercedes in Sainz was somewhat surprising to Williams team principal James Vowles, but it also served to slightly keep Toto Wolff’s team out of the limelight when it comes to its driver situation. In any other year, there would be incessant focus on the vacancy at Mercedes, with the team needing to replace the most successful driver in F1 history as Lewis Hamilton heads for Ferrari.
That’s not to say there hasn’t been attention on Mercedes, but certainly less than you might have expected for that seat given the way the driver market has been playing out, and with the growing feeling that it will be Andrea Kimi Antonelli making the step up as a rookie.
Antonelli turns 18 at the end of this weekend, and that opens up the possibility of him making an FP1 appearance at his home race in Monza. He has tested for Mercedes already this year, but it would be another step on the path towards a full-time race seat if he were to get a Friday practice outing. If he does, take it as a sign of the continuing trend towards Antonelli partnering George Russell in 2025.
And the other factor to keep in mind, despite comments at the start of the break, is the ongoing focus at Red Bull relating to Sergio Perez.
Marko promised a decision on reserve driver Liam Lawson next month – meaning in September – and he’s certainly a strong candidate for the as-yet-unconfirmed RB seat, but that doesn’t mean there couldn’t be movement elsewhere too.
The decision from Red Bull to stick by Perez and show faith in him heading into the break was sensible in the way that it meant there were no doubts or strong rumors during those few weeks. But that also doesn’t mean the team is guaranteeing him his spot indefinitely.
The focus will be on making sure the car helps Perez feel more confident behind the wheel, and Red Bull is taking on its share of the responsibility. But if there is not an upturn in performances and results alongside that work, then Perez is not immune from replacement.
That could provide a lifeline to Daniel Ricciardo, who is currently staring at a departure from RB unless he produces some remarkable performances. He probably needs to be doing that anyway, but if Perez does regain the type of form that he had at the start of the season then there won’t be room for Ricciardo at Red Bull and Lawson could well be replacing him in 2025. And that’s without factoring in the job Isack Hadjar is doing in F2, where he leads the championship.
Decisions and announcements could come at any time, but what it all adds up to is at least the potential for a quiet spell because Mercedes and RB look extremely likely to promote from within their own ranks.
Alpine and Stake then have a large number of potential candidates to choose from. The ball is now more in their courts than Sainz’s, as was the case previously, so if they don’t make quick commitments there could still be a few twists and turns in the market yet.