There’s no position more endemic to NFL success than quarterback. Over the last decade, each Super Bowl winning QB has earned at least one Pro Bowl invitation. Those six passers have combined for 10 MVP awards and 20 All-Pro honors.
So while a good defense can push a team to the playoffs, the line between contender and participant has been drawn at the space just behind each team’s center. More than ever, teams need a player who can stretch the field with big throws and lead his team back from daunting deficits.
Thanks to years of data, we know who the best candidates are. Predicting how they’ll play in 2023, however, is a much trickier exercise. Last season saw promising quarterbacks old and young fall off as guys like Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones all backslid. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa made a significant step forward and Geno Smith emerged from his cocoon as a navy-and-neon butterfly who helped carry the Seattle Seahawks from a months-long rebuild.
Let’s use that data to get a vague idea of how this year’s pecking order will unfold. We’ve got a pretty good idea of who 2023’s best quarterback will be and a solid guess, at least with the 32 names we’ve been given to start the season, who’ll be the worst. In between? Well, there’s going to be some arguments and some shuffling and a few genuine suprises.
With that in mind, this is the first look at our 2023 NFL regular season quarterback tiers.
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