The Cowboys’ reticence to pay Dak Prescott seems inexplicable. But maybe there’s an obvious answer.

The Cowboys have a franchise quarterback but are reluctant to pay him. Why?

Chris Jones got his deal from the Chiefs. Even Derrick Henry (a running back!) got paid by the Titans. Yet when the deadline for extending franchise-tagged players passed Wednesday, Dak Prescott, the only quarterback who was tagged this offseason, found himself without a long-term deal, ensuring the Cowboys star will play out the 2020 season on the $31.4 million tag, unable to negotiate a new contract until the 2021 league year starts next spring.

Prescott will be only the third quarterback to play on the franchise tag since the option was given to teams in 1993. Drew Brees was the first, but that was back in San Diego before he became Drew Brees. Kirk Cousins was the most recent and notable case. He ended up playing two years in Washington under the tag, and just like Brees, ended up leaving once he made it to free agency.

Those quarterbacks clearly weren’t in their teams’ plans for the future but one would assume the same is not true for Prescott in Dallas. Then again, teams that believe they have their guy don’t waste time locking them up to long-term contracts, even if it requires a bit of an overpay. Jimmy Garoppolo got his record-setting contract after five starts in San Francisco. Jared Goff got his money while many questioned if he was anything more than a product of Sean McVay’s quarterback-by-numbers system. Derek Carr and Carson Wentz didn’t have to wait for their rookie deals to expire to get their big-money extensions.

So maybe the Cowboys haven’t fully bought into Prescott. If that’s the case, I’d have to question the competence of the organization. I’d also have to ask what is influencing the reluctance. It certainly isn’t Prescott’s production. Here’s a list of quarterbacks who have completed over 65% of their passes with a touchdown rate over 4.5% and an interception rate below 2% over their first four seasons in the league:

  1. Dak Prescott

That’s it. That’s the entire list. Just Rayne Dakota Prescott all by himself.

Those are dumb stats, but Prescott performs well in the more advanced metrics, too. Here’s the list of quarterbacks who rank ahead of him in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt through four years:

  1. Kurt Warner
  2. Dan Marino
  3. Russell Wilson
  4. Mark Rypien

Those first two guys are in Canton. Wilson will be there five years after he retires. Mark Rypien was drafted by a Super Bowl-winning team and didn’t become the full-time starter until his age-26 season.

How about some more stats?

Prescott is coming off a season in which he finished seventh in Expected Points Added per play and third in Success Rate, according to The Athletics’ Ben Baldwin. He finished sixth in Next Gen Stats’ Completion Percentage Over Expectation metric. He was fourth in Sports Info Solutions’ Total Points metric. He was Pro Football Focus’ eighth-best quarterback in a clean pocket, one of the most predictive measures of quarterback play.

Seriously, why am I writing this blog right now? Why is Dallas still playing hardball with a quarterback on pace for a hall of fame career?

Maybe the Cowboys are listening to the people who grasp at any meaningless statistical split that puts Prescott in a bad light. Maybe they still subscribe to the theory that Dak is nothing without Ezekiel Elliot in the backfield (which has been disproven repeatedly) or the Best Offensive Line in Football™ (which hasn’t actually been the best offensive line in football since 2016).

Or maybe black quarterbacks are just held to a higher standard than their white counterparts.

If you’re a black quarterback and you haven’t won a Super Bowl or an MVP or set records, your credentials as a true franchise quarterback are going to be questioned. Hell, Lamar Jackson is still getting “just wait ‘til defensive coordinators get film on him” crap after an MVP season. Prescott heard the same talk after his rookie season as if defensive coordinators weren’t prepared for Jason Garrett’s revolutionary offense back in 2016.

The truth is, we don’t talk about black quarterbacks in the same way we talk about white ones. For instance, how often do you hear analysts talk about Prescott’s command of the Cowboys offense and the tireless work he does before the snap making checks and tinkering with protections?

Here’s a breakdown of Dak’s pre-snap work from Nate Tice, who played quarterback at Wisconsin and worked on NFL staffs in Oakland and Atlanta:

I mean, listen to this dude orchestrating things:

I’m not expecting casual NFL fans to appreciate Prescott’s pre-snap work, but how about the analysts who had to change their pants every time Peyton Manning said “Omaha?” Prescott is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the league, and he never gets credit for it. He does all the little things that we praise traditional white quarterbacks for: He makes those pre-snap changes, he navigates the pocket with his eyes up at all times, he goes through his progressions and makes throws in rhythm. If his name was Zack Prescott, you’d hear about it more often. He’d also have a long-term contract by now and there wouldn’t have been this big fuss about it.

Perhaps the Cowboys think they are just being thrifty, but even that explanation doesn’t hold up.

With the pandemic potentially putting a freeze on what has been an ever-growing salary cap, the Cowboys are playing a dangerous game. As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell explained Wednesday, Prescott’s franchise tag value in 2021 isn’t tied to the cap; it will be a 120% raise on his 2020 cap number regardless of how the cap fluctuates, so Prescott’s cap hit percentage could be disproportionately high. Barnwell writes:

“In other words, if the NFL announces that its cap for 2021 will be $150 million, the $37.7 million the Cowboys would have to pay Prescott next year would feel more like paying him $51.3 million under their current cap situation. If the cap gets squeezed and the Cowboys can’t get a deal done with Prescott next offseason, they’ll need to do serious work to try to create cap room.”

The Cowboys are essentially betting against Prescott. And doing so after they just provided him with another weapon in first-round pick WR CeeDee Lamb. The addition of the explosive rookie receiver to Dallas’ already-loaded offense has caught Vegas’ attention. Prescott has the third-best odds to win NFL MVP next season. If that happens — or even if Dak puts together a season that garners him MVP votes — he can ask for the world or just stiff-arm any offers from the Cowboys knowing he’s just a year away from free agency and a bidding war that would inflate his value even more.

Maybe if that happens, we’ll all finally come to our senses and just accept the fact that Prescott is one of the league’s best quarterbacks. Or maybe we’ll just move the goalposts and we’ll still be having this conversation years from now.