Things couldn’t be going much better for the Cowboys two weeks into the 2023 season. Dallas stands a perfect 2-0. The defense has limited opponents to a combined 10 points. The offense is operating safely and efficiently. Even the special teams unit is carrying their weight.
To explain the overwhelming success, there are a number of factors one can point to. The defense specifically has been in a class all their own this season. Dan Quinn’s unit is dominating from start to finish. They take the pressure off the offense and keeps the burden on the opposition.
But it’s their ability to force mistakes and create turnovers that’s truly driving their unit’s success. And the Dallas offense’s ability to play complementary football and not turn the ball over themselves is what delivers a death knell to opponents.
For the third year in a row, the Cowboys’ defense is leading the league in defensive turnovers. In 2021 they totaled 34 and in 2022 they totaled 33. With seven turnovers in two games, the Dallas defense is on pace to post nearly 60.
While a turnover total that gaudy is highly unlikely to come to fruition, the Cowboys’ consistent prowess in creating turnovers is the point to be made here. Dallas has taken an extremely unstable statistic, like defensive turnovers, and made it part of their identity.
At an average of roughly -4.5 EPA, turnovers often represent the biggest expected point swings in the game. But since turnovers work both ways, it’s also on the Cowboys’ offense to do its part in the turnover game as well.
Keep in mind, the last three seasons the Cowboys defense was tops in the NFL in creating turnovers. Yet, the team still got bounced in the postseason largely because their offense couldn’t play their part in the turnover battle.
That’s why the key stat here isn’t just turnovers, it’s turnover differential.
Turnovers often make the difference in an NFL game. How much? Enough to close most point spreads pic.twitter.com/jgihZ7xH1D
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) September 5, 2023
Per ESPN Stats & Information, home teams who hold just a +1 advantage in turnover differential, have a 73 percent chance of winning. That number jumps to 86 percent when they are +2.
If the offense has less turnovers than the defense gains, it’s a positive differential. If the offense chokes up more than the defense can force, it’s a negative differential. It’s as simple as that.
Even though last week Dak Prescott threw a turnover worthy pass that was dropped and CeeDee Lamb fumbled a ball into a teammate’s hands, the Cowboys offense has yet to give up a single turnover this season.
As those examples show, luck is involved to a degree and it’s impossible to be both aggressive and turnover-free on offense for a sustained period of time. So, the message isn’t “don’t turn the ball over on offense” but rather “keep offensive turnovers to a minimum and keep the defense’s performance in mind.”
Based on EPA, Prescott interceptions alone resulted in a loss of 74 points for Dallas in 2022. A turnover returned for touchdown (aka Pick-6) can often exceed eight points in EPA. The impact of a turnover can be tremendous, especially if it shifts the differential into the opponent’s favor.
At +7, the Cowboys lead the NFL this season in turnover differential. They are +2 ahead of second place Tampa Bay and +3 ahead of NFC East rival Philadelphia.
As discussed prior to the season, the fear of turning the ball over on offense can lead some offenses to become ultra-conservative which can provided an even more disastrous outcome. Fear of turnovers are no excuse to neuter a perfectly good offense. There’s a balance to be found.
The Cowboys are winning for a number of reasons. A combined 70-10 point total in 2023 indicates as much. But turnover differential has the ability to be the most influential stat for the Cowboys this season and maintaining a positive score is likely to be key to their success through the winter.
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