Any NFL free agent who signed a long-term contract in 2019 should be pleased with his decision. Those contracts are going to look mighty good, considering what’s going to happen in free agency for 2021 and for the rest of 2020.
The COVID-19 outbreak has already had a major impact upon the NFL, and judging from the new collective bargaining agreement, a renegotiation in response to the pandemic, the league anticipates the novel coronavirus pandemic to affect 2021. The NFL and the NFLPA have said the cap could drop as low as $175 million for 2021, which would be a sizable decrease from the $198 million camp in 2020. It would be the first decrease since 2011, and it’s clear many NFL teams are not prepared for such a thrifty budget. The Philadelphia Eagles, for example, are slated for a league-high $266 million in top-51 cap spending, which would be disastrous if the cap does drop all the way to $175.
Considering the NFL will likely play in front of empty stadiums for the entirety of 2020 — and coaches have already admitted they’re ready for cancellations — the league is likely to lose a tremendous amount of revenue, which could lead owners to compensate in 2021.
That’s why teams are unlikely to do much with their ballooning cap space in 2020 after their players have elected to opt out amid the coronavirus. The New England Patriots, for example, have $35 million in new cap space with eight players deciding not to play. Each player’s salary and signing bonus will toll into 2021, essentially pushing back the terms of the contract one year. The Patriots are actually a rare case in that they are also set up nicely in 2021, even if the cap does go down. Bill Belichick has somehow managed to have the second most cap space next year. But even with all that cap space in 2020, the Patriots (and other teams) may elect not to use their cap space in order to see that money roll over into 2021. (Per NFL rules, a team gets their 2020 cap space credited to their total in 2021.)
All that adds up to bad contracts for the remaining free agents in 2020 and the pending free agents in 2021. Money will be so tight in 2021 that teams may already start saving. Teams won’t want to use their lingering cap space this year, with hopes of getting some relief next year. If they do decide to sign a player, they may decide just to sign him for one year, with so much uncertainty in 2021. But that means that player will hit free agency in 2021, when teams will be spending frugally. It’s a bleak situation for this free agency class and the one that’s coming.
Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is among those most greatly impacted by the pandemic in 2020. He headlines a group which includes guard Larry Worford, cornerback Logan Ryan and edge Everson Griffen. Next year, the free agency class could include quarterbacks Dak Prescott and Philip Rivers, receiver A.J. Green and Allen Robinson, outside linebackers Melvin Ingram, Shaq Barrett, Bud Dupree and Von Miller (there’s a club option in his deal), tight end Hunter Henry and guards Joe Thuney and Brandon Scherff. It’s an impressive group.
The financial impact of COVID-19 could be severe for the players as a trick-down effect from the league’s loss in revenue over the coming season.
[vertical-gallery id=937361]