The thing about Father Time is that he sucks. But at least he’s consistent.
Aaron Rodgers, who at 36 years of age has much more football behind him than ahead of him, is due for an heir apparent.
The universe likes symmetry, so the subtle whispers have raised a few decibels into rumblings: Will the Packers draft a quarterback this year?
Allegedly, the Packers really liked former Missouri quarterback Drew Lock, whom the Broncos drafted in the second round of the 2019 draft. Alas, they didn’t get the chance at their draft slot of choice and thus selected Elgton Jenkins.
The Packers passed on drafting a quarterback last year and they should pass again this year. And in 2021. And 2022, too.
The reason has much more to do with dollars and cents. With the way Aaron Rodgers’ contract is currently structured, No. 12 is going to be paid as a starting, ride-or-die quarterback.
Below is Rodgers’ contract structure:
| Year | Age | Cap hit | Dead cap |
| 2020 | 36 | $21.6M | $39.7M |
| 2021 | 37 | $36.3M | $31.5M |
| 2022 | 38 | $39.0M | $17.2M |
| 2023 | 39 | $28.2M | $2.8M |
If the Packers do draft Rodgers’ replacement this year, the odds suggest it’s going to have to be a Day 1 or 2 pick in order for the position to pan out. The simple fact is that there are far more Andrew Lucks than Tom Bradys in terms of early versus late-round success.
More to the point is that the structure of Rodgers’ contract ensures he’s going to be the with the team, at minimum, through the 2022 season.
Perhaps things change when a new collective bargaining agreement is ratified, but one of the biggest advantages in the NFL from a personnel standpoint is having your most important player on a rookie contract, specifically when that player is a star quarterback (see: Mahomes, Patrick).
In a league built on parity, teams who find ways to win usually do so because they’ve found a way to exploit a market inefficiency.
One (harder) way to do that is to build your roster and scheme based on undervalued assets and skills. Bill Belichick did this to earn his most-recent Super Bowl last year. General managers reacted to the spread offense boom by giving their defensive coordinators light-in-the-pants edge benders, hybrid linebackers, and lightning-quick centerfield safeties. That’s all well and good against most offenses. Belichick flipped the script with an aging quarterback by bulking up his offensive line and gashing teams on the ground with a platoon of running backs, each with a unique skill set. Kyle Shanahan did something similar with a productive, albeit limited quarterback this year. He crafted a scheme that gives its offensive linemen advantageous angles in the run game with a play-action system that depresses the pass rush.
These things work, but it’s not a coincidence that they were managed under the administration of Belichick and Shanahan, both of whom are at the top of the coaching class.
Door No. 2, or the easier path, is based a lot on how the Los Angeles Rams earned a Super Bowl birth and how Chicago Bears built a quick contender a year ago. It’s also the method by which the Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl. Play your franchise quarterback on his rookie contract. Use the available cap space to purchase talent and fill roster holes at the other 52, less-expensive positions; by the time those other contracts are set to expire, the quarterback, ostensibly your franchise quarterback, will be looking for a lucrative contract extension. It’s a transfer of wealth at that point, and the young buck can be expected to carry a heavier offensive load sans multiple outside free agents.
Draft a quarterback, hope he’s good, and build a cache of weapons around him in the meantime while he develops. Oversimplified? Sure. But it’s the best current strategy for rebuilding a roster.
This all only works if the replacement quarterback is the singular predominant quarterback contract on the roster.
If the Packers draft Rodgers’ successor this offseason, then – barring injury – there’s almost no chance he’s going to see the field. He’s probably not going to see the field until, conservatively, 2023 but not earlier than the 2022 season. In either case, that player would be 75 to 100 percent of the way through the “market exploitation” period of his contract (Fifth-year options aren’t all that cheap. For reference, quarterback Jameis Winston’s fifth-year option cost the Buccaneers almost $21 million).
What the Packers should do is wait. Wait until after the 2021 season. Then start making an earnest attempt to draft Rodgers’ replacement. He can sit a year and learn if need be, but a succession plan is more seamless if a green quarterback has sufficient talent on which to lean.
There’s one caveat in this entire equation, however: quarterbacks are so valuable that, if the team truly thinks they’re drafting the next Aaron Rodgers, it’s a hard proposition to pass up regardless of context.
But in this offseason, with the Packers drafting at No. 30, the chances are unlikely that a third-consecutive Hall of Fame quarterback is going to fall into their lap.
What they should do is play the odds, build a contender by filling more-pressing roster holes right now such as wide receiver and linebacker, and hope No. 12 has enough gas in the tank to keep this team in the conversation for the remainder of his contract.