What is the biggest test facing USC head football coach Clay Helton in 2021? The question is an obvious one, an important one, and a weighty one. The question invites all sorts of answers, many different windows into how Clay Helton will conduct his business and change — or reaffirm — his identity in front of the USC fan base.
Whether in the spring or fall, Helton will coach USC in 2021. Assuming we are fortunate enough to have college football games next year (the Pac-12 has already given up on that prospect in 2020), what really is the most central challenge facing Helton?
Again, so many possible answers exist, and many of them will be perfectly good ones. Which answer is better than others? It’s actually not as complicated as many people think. A key moment in Helton’s coaching tenure provides the answer.
The most important moment in Helton’s stay at USC — at least in terms of saving his job and making it possible for him to remain employed for more than half a decade at Heritage Hall — was his fateful decision to start Sam Darnold against Utah early in the 2016 season. Yes, the decision revealed how much of a mistake Helton had made by tabbing Max Browne as the Week 1 starter against Alabama a few weeks earlier, but Helton had to acknowledge his mistake instead of stubbornly refusing to do so. Had he stuck with Browne, the 2016 season would have gone nowhere. Helton likely would have been fired; moreover, he would have deserved to be.
By starting Darnold — and by doing so before the season had fully unraveled — Helton barely avoided disaster. Darnold was able to create a 9-3 record, which was good enough to make the Rose Bowl when Pac-12 champion Washington went to the College Football Playoff and the Peach Bowl national semifinal game against Alabama. Darnold was spectacular in a comeback win over Penn State.
Helton had trusted Darnold, a younger player, to perform. He took a chance on an unknown. He bet big. He went bold. His confidence, but also his willingness to make a change and admit a mistake, were both rewarded. That’s the reason Helton had a productive pair of seasons in 2016 and 2017 at USC. That’s why he is still around now.
This is the essential answer to the big question posed above. When we get to 2021 and Helton looks at his roster, will he be willing to play younger players over older ones? Will he display the ability to relentlessly change his player rotations and not cede most snaps to incumbents?
This point will be especially salient if there is no spring football, and the next Pac-12 game for USC occurs in September of 2021. The Trojans — along with every other Pac-12 program — will have played no football for nearly 20 months. In that period of time, incoming recruits will have had time to study Graham Harrell’s offense and Todd Orlando’s defense. Film study will be able to be done in copious quantities. Players will be able to do a lot of textbook learning while also working out and developing their strength.
USC’s 2020 recruiting was mediocre, but its 2021 recruiting was strong. Helton will confront familiar decisions about playing experienced players or younger players with more upside. That isn’t anything new for him or any other college football coach, but what WILL be different is that after 20 months without football, younger players who didn’t get to play in 2020 will have had another year in which to physically develop. None of USC’s players will have endured any physical punishment (not, at least, in live-game action) for nearly two whole years, so they will be very fresh entering a fall 2021 season.
Helton’s ability to use players correctly is his biggest challenge.
See? That wasn’t as mysterious or as complicated as you might have thought.