Over the next few weeks, we in the media are going to spend a lot of time talking about and analyzing NFL head coaching hires. Here’s a dirty little secret: None of us know what the hell we’re talking about.
And that’s not a dig at the media — I’m in the media! — but it’s more of a comment on how hard it is to judge a candidate before they’re actually asked to do the job of a head coach. Experience as a play-caller often seems to be a prerequisite for teams, but success as an offensive or defensive coordinator hasn’t always carried over to the big job.
I mean, just two years ago, Freddie Kitchens was seen as a slam-dunk hire after he helped turn around Baker Mayfield’s rookie season. Meanwhile, the Packers were laughed at for hiring Matt LaFleur after he lead a mediocre offense in Tennessee and he was seen as a “Friend of McVay” hire. Green Bay has won 26 games over the last two years. Cleveland fired Kitchens after one season.
Again, this is all very hard. So with that out of the way, let’s try to do the impossible: Sort out all of the head coaching candidates and pick the “perfect” one for each job opening. I’m not trying to predict which candidate will land with which team; but rather, which candidate I think would be the best fit for each team.