Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 3
Tracking my 2023 predictions: 0-2-0
All-time record: 18-33-3
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing
This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.
Last week’s performance by Minnesota Vikings wide receiver K.J. Osborn is a perfect example of why I decided to add the grading system above. He was projected for 16.6 PPR points and finished at 12.4, narrowly missing the 75 percent threshold (thanks for the wide-open drop, Mr. Osborn). But that doesn’t mean playing him hurt you in any way, so it’s hard to call it a true loss. For the sake of maintaining a baseline, it still gets chalked up as a loss.
RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
Somewhat surprisingly, Williams has dominated the backfield’s carry count 25-to-9 over Samaje Perine. The two have produced nearly identical fantasy results, however, and suffice it to say, the returns haven’t been great. Williams is still trying to regain his form following last year’s torn ACL, and the expectation was he’d be slowly worked back in with Perine garnering the bulk of the early-season workload. It just isn’t been the case, and that’s a great sign for Williams, even if he hasn’t been particularly explosive.
In Week 1, we saw a much closer carry split between Williams and Perine. The former rushed 13 times to the latter’s eight, but Denver leaned on their third-year back a dozen times to the journeyman’s lone carry last weekend. Nonetheless, Perine has maintained a receiving role with four targets in each of the first two games. Williams has averaged 4.5 targets of his own.
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The Broncos don’t want this to turn into a track meet, and keeping Miami’s offense on the sideline as long as possible is the goal. Expect a heavy reliance on the ground game, and even if the Dolphins do a good job of clogging up the middle, Williams’ ability as a checkdown for Russell Wilson is an underrated aspect of his game.
Williams should start to turn the corner in Week 3 vs. a Dolphins defense that has given up running back TDs at the fourth-highest rate, and only two teams have yielded rushing yards per game at a higher figure than the 135.5 Miami has granted. The ‘Fins have allowed 5.1 yards per carry to the position. This matchup is much easier to exploit on the ground, and gamers should like Williams for his best season-to-date performance as a risky RB2 and much safer flex.
My projection: 14 carries, 66 rushing yards, 5 targets, 5 receptions, 28 yards, 1 TD (20.4 PPR points)