If you’re an NFL offensive coordinator, one of the things you’re going to know, and one of the things you’re going to build your game plans around, is how well your quarterback fares against specific types of coverage. Josh Allen of the Bills, who had one of the more remarkable breakout seasons we’ve seen from any quarterback in 2020, is an excellent example. Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll did an amazing job of scheming things up to match Allen’s efficiency against any kind of man coverage, and the results were clear: Allen completed 148 of 241 passes for 1,852 yards, 1,218 air yards, 23 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. Only Aaron Rodgers (37) and Tom Brady (25) had more touchdowns against man coverage than Allen, and that’s because… well, they’re Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
But against zone coverage, where Allen had to do more post-snap diagnostic work and deal with more late-in-the-down coverage switches, things were more complicated. Against Cover-2, Cover-3, Cover-4, and Cover-6, Allen completed 249 of 350 attempts for 2,890 yards, 1,957 air yards… and seven interceptions to just 11 touchdowns. That’s not to say that Allen is a one-hit wonder who can be demolished by certain coverages; it just took a while for Allen to figure things out, and for Daboll to help him get there. From Week 10 through Buffalo’s AFC Championship game loss to the Chiefs, Allen threw seven of those touchdowns and just three picks against man coverage.
So, there’s hope for development along the way, especially if you’re a high-traits quarterback in a good system. It’s why the potential NFL offensive coordinators for the quarterbacks of the 2021 draft class should be (and probably are) aware of which QBs deal with specific types of coverages with the most production and efficiency, and what it tells us about their overall skill sets.
Thanks to the Sports Info Solutions database, we have (most of) that information, and here are the best 2021 draft prospect quarterbacks against the most common types of coverage.
(All coverage metrics provided by Sports Info Solutions. Note: There were no metrics in the database for Trey Lance’s 2019 season, or his one 2020 game).