EvanMiya, the popular college basketball analytics site, released a story on Friday breaking down the best and worst possible outcomes for each team in the country, and Duke (predictably) could be the top team in the country.
Evan Miyakawa, the site’s founder, explained in a blog post that he simulated the 2024-25 season 10,000 times for the calculations. He used the fifth and 95th percentile results to determine the best- and worst-case scenarios.
The Blue Devils, led by freshman superstar [autotag]Cooper Flagg[/autotag], start the season as EvanMiya’s fourth-best team, but the ceiling projection included the No. 1 spot within their range of outcomes. In fact, Duke was the only team in the ACC with the ceiling to reach the first overall spot as the North Carolina Tar Heels could only climb up to No. 3.
However, as to be expected with a team reliant upon five-star freshmen, the floor in Durham is well outside the top 25. In fact, EvanMiya sees the worst possible version of the Blue Devils finishing as the No. 48 team in the country.
In fairness, however, that floor is not abnormally low among the top teams. The Houston Cougars, EvanMiya’s top preseason team, were the only team with a floor within the top 30 (26th). Only the Cougars, Gonzaga Bulldogs, Iowa State Cyclones, Alabama Crimson Tide, and Kansas Jayhawks finished with a higher floor than Duke in the preseason projections.
The median Duke result, according to EvanMiya’s calculations, was the tenth-best team in the nation. Only Houston (fifth) and Gonzaga (seventh) ended with a better number.