When the Oklahoma City Thunder traded for Chris Paul, the point guard’s contract was seen by many as one of the worst in the league.
But now, after an All-Star season in which he led Oklahoma City to playoff position and one year closer to the end of his massive contract, the Thunder could unquestionably get assets back if they trade him.
The Athletic’s Erik Horne and John Hollinger discussed the merits of trading away the best player on the team.
Hollinger: “The value will never be higher than this summer — coming off a big year, with one year plus an option left on his deal.”
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Horne: “That contract before the season was looked at as an albatross. What is its value now? Paul was playing at a Top 5 point guard level before the stoppage, but is also going to be 35 starting next season with a $44.2 million player option in his age 36 season in 2021-22.”
Paul is owed about $41 million next season and has a player option for $44 million the following year. Seeing the two-year expiration date on that deal is much more palatable than it was last offseason.
Teams who think they’re one great player away from a title and can create cap space may come calling.
The risk for the Thunder in keeping him: His value may never reach this peak again. What if Paul finally, noticeably takes a step back into merely average or above-average point guard territory? What if he gets injured?
Both Athletic reporters agreed the Thunder will likely have to sacrifice short-term winning if they want a sturdy long-term rebuild.
“If a bottoming out is going to happen, it can’t happen without Paul elsewhere. Paul on your team is not sacrificing the short term. He’s too good, at least until the next injury,” Horne wrote.
Hollinger thinks letting Paul go will hurt them in the near future, but to reach an apex the team might have to.
“It’s hard to see how the Thunder get to the places they want to go three to five years down the road without cashing in their Chris Paul stock,” he wrote.
Hollinger is getting at a couple things. First, whatever Paul brings back can be a boon for the future, whether a pick, a younger player, extra cap room or all three.
Additionally, the Thunder would have a better chance for a high draft pick without him. In 2021, the Thunder have their own selection and the Miami Heat — but both may be in the 20s.
In 2022, the Thunder will forfeit their pick to the Atlanta Hawks if it falls outside the top 10. The Los Angeles Clippers 2022 pick OKC owns is likely to be in the 20s.
In 2023, Oklahoma City has its own pick (with the right to swap for the Clippers) and the Heat’s lottery-protected pick.
If the Thunder don’t bottom out, they could have several picks in the 20s over the next three years. There’s certainly value to be found there, but the hit-miss rate is obviously better with a higher draft pick.
Now is likely when Paul’s value will be the highest it will be for the rest of his Oklahoma City tenure.
If the Thunder hold onto him, they risk losing him in free agency for nothing, all while using $85 million on him over the next two years.
With that said — Paul is still a great player. Winning is more fun than losing. Salary-dumping an All-Star seems counterproductive.
Hollinger doesn’t think the Thunder should outright tank. Now’s just the time to move if Oklahoma City is to get back value.
“The Thunder shouldn’t trade him just to trade him — he’s still really good! But their best chance to get the most value for Chris Paul is likely to come this offseason,” Hollinger wrote.