Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Some quarterbacks come out of the chute with absolute boom-or-bust potential in that if you were to compile a reel of their best throws, you’d think said quarterback was the best player in his draft class. The problem with this kind of selective scouting is the stuff left on the cutting room floor. The Chargers took Herbert sixth overall in the 2020 draft in part because, at 6-foot-6 and 236 pounds and with the ability to shoot the ball out of his cannon of an arm all over the field, he fits the NFL’s preferred “Big Guy/Big Arm” prototype for quarterbacks.
Last season, per Pro Football Focus, Herbert completed 27 of 69 passes of 20 or more air yards for 874 yards, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 114.3. If you want a vertical passing game, and a young quarterback to fulfill it, that seems like a perfect match.
The problem with Herbert? Well, it’s most of the other stuff. On passes of 10-19 air yards last season, his passer rating dropped to 106.5, and on passes of 0-9 air yards, his passer rating dropped yet again to 89.7 — which ranked 89th in the NCAA. And while he did improve under pressure to a serious degree last season (his passer rating under pressure went up from 58.8 in 2018 to 102.2 in 2019, per Sports Info Solutions), his iffy ability to go through his progressions, a maddening tendency to freeze when committing to throw on the run, and obvious issues with all the moving parts that can plague bigger quarterbacks will set him back if he’s not completely committed to the process.
In short, Herbert is the kind of quarterback who makes the glamorous stuff look easy, and the subtle things look nearly impossible. That is a prototypical formula for a boom-or-bust guy.
Touchdown Wire’s own Mark Schofield has a fascinating breakdown of Herbert’s “interesting” decisions here:
Justin Herbert | Damon Arnette | K’Lavon Chaisson | Jordan Love | Grant Delpit