Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
We have arrived at the “running backs don’t matter” portion of the proceedings.
While I do not strictly adhere to that principle, I again remind you dear reader that we are talking about value in free agency in this list.
The Tennessee Titans rode Henry to an AFC Championship Game a year ago, and the running back turned in a career year. He posted 1,540 yards on the ground with 16 touchdowns and averaged 102.7 yards per game, numbers which are all career highs for him. He also contributed in the passing game, catching 18 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns, with that pair of TDs also a career high for him. In the playoffs? Henry had 182 yards rushing and a touchdown in Tennessee’s upset of the New England Patriots, and 195 yards rushing in Tennessee’s upset of the Baltimore Ravens.
And yet…
Part of the basis for the idea that “running backs don’t matter” – which is a bumper sticker-type slogan that really simplifies the issue – is that in the realm of Expected Points Added (with scoring points the goal of the sport), the passing game is still king. In that upset of the Patriots? In EPA terms Henry was not the whole reason the Titans won that game. Thanks to a handy tool created by Ben Baldwin, who covers the league for The Athletic – Seattle, we know that Tennessee’s EPA per play on passing plays was 0.07. On rushing plays? 0.08. Ryan Tannehill’s EPA per play was 0.08 on each of his dropbacks, while Henry’s EPA per play was 0.07 on his 35 carries.
The point? Even with these prodigious numbers Henry was just a part of Tennessee’s offense, and not their entire offense. So overpaying him on the open market, despite his production last season, might not be the best means of putting your offense in position to put points on the board. Another way to look at this is in terms of Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) from Football Outsiders. Last year the Titans’ offense had a rushing DVOA of 7.9%, which was fifth in the league. Their passing game? It posted a DVOA of 29.6%.
Passing is king.