The 11 riskiest free agents in the 2020 league year

Every acquisition carries risk. Who are some free agent options that require a bit more due diligence from teams before free agency begins?

Jadeveon Clowney, EDGE, Seattle Seahawks

(Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

This has nothing to do with sack totals, but more with the idea of value.

Clowney notched three sacks last season with the Seattle Seahawks over the course of 13 regular season games, but those sacks do not tell the full story. He was battling a core injury, which will require off-season surgery, but even with that impediment he was able to generate 30 pressures, more than Bud Dupree (as just outlined) and more than DeMarcus Lawrence, both of whom appeared in all 16 games for the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys, respectively.

In addition, Clowney was one of the best in the league at winning on his pass rushing opportunities. According to ESPN’s pass rush win rate,  Clowney won 24% of his pass rushing reps last season, defined as beating his blocker withing 2.5 second of the snap. That number was good, according to ESPN’s data, for 7th among EDGE defenders.

This all sounds great, right? So where is the risk?

The cost.

Clowney has indicated, according to reporting from Bleacher Report, that he is seeking a “market-setting” contract:

While Sportrac gives Clowney a market valuation of $20 million per year, Lawrence last season was given a contract with an average yearly salary of $21 million. If Clowney is looking to get north of that number, it might become cost-prohibitive for teams looking to win a title next year to make a run at him. The Baltimore Ravens, who are looking to reach an agreement with current edge rusher Matt Judon, currently have just $30 million in available cap space. Retaining Judon and signing Clowney, for example, might be too much to take on while filling out the rest of the roster and signing draft picks.

That could mean that teams with much more space – but not ready to win immediately – are safer options given the cost.

Clowney is an impressive player, to be sure, but when there are player who can also be productive off the edge but cost more in the $12 to $15 million range (Robert Quinn, Dante Fowler, Jason Pierre-Paul among others) it does raise the question of whether the value is there for teams with tougher cap situations.