It became clear back in December that the soon-to-be Dallas Cowboys hire was pushing hard for his return to the NFL’s head coaching circle. There were two separate public relation pieces Mike McCarthy and his team put out to sell owners and fans on the idea he’s a changed man, ready for a shot at another Lombardi trophy.
The first was the “McCarthy Project“, a sit down with NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero that showed a more human, less robotic side of the yinzer. Along with time spent with Pro Football Talk’s Peter King, the articles showcased McCarthy’s self- reflection and willingness to adapt to a game some believed had passed him by.
If the talk of analytics taking hold are to be believed, this hire by Jerry Jones and company has the opportunity to get the Cowboys back to true contenders in a modern version of the 100-year old league. If it’s purely lip service, Dallas fans are going to be saddled with a coach who, in one of his biggest moments, came up lame.
Flashback to January of 2015.
The Green Bay Packers had just advanced past the Cowboys in the “Dez Caught It” game at Lambeau Field. McCarthy and company headed to Seattle to take on the Seahawks for a Super Bowl berth.
It can only be described as coaching malpractice.
There’s numbers to insinuate McCarthy had largely been aggressive on fourth downs in his career. First, from a deep dive by The Athletic’s Bob Sturm, showing McCarthy went for it on 4th-and-4-or-more than any other coach between 2010-2018 in the first three quarters of the game.
These numbers speak to the same kind of trend.
Same criteria, except only for 2 to 5 yards to go:
Garrett: 4.8% go for it, 23.8% FG attempt, 71.4% punt
McCarthy: 55.2% go for it, 17.2% FG attempt, 27.6% punt
— AdamJT13 (@AdamJT13) January 4, 2020
When comparing McCarthy to the man he replaced in Dallas, Jason Garrett, he comes off like a teenager playing Madden, treating fourth down like any other play. All of that can be true, but for at least one day in Seattle, he cost his team a trip to the Super Bowl by becoming incredibly conservative.
The first two scores of the game came off the leg of kicker Mason Crosby. Both field goal attempts were snapped from the one-yard-line and while the old football adage may be “take the points,” the analytically inclined will call out both of those decisions as abysmal.
The Packers’ fourth score (following a touchdown) had McCarthy forego yet another opportunity at a 4th-and-1, kicking a 40-yard field goal. Those decisions led to a 16-0 lead, but he had passed up three separate opportunities to turn three points into seven.
The first time the Packers touched the ball in the second half ended when they faced yet another 4th-and-1 at their own 48-yard-line and chose to punt the ball away. Just two and a half minutes later, quarterback Russell Wilson and the Seahawks had passed the point from which Green Bay had punted, and scored a touchdown soon after that.
With Green Bay leading 19-7, McCarthy chose to implement the vaunted “prevent offense” and went into a shell in attempt to run the clock. The only part of that strategy that was successful was taking the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands. Those two drives lasted a whopping two minutes (though, to be fair, the Seahawks used two timeouts in the process) and gained two yards in the process.
To be fair, McCarthy wasn’t the only culprit.
Green Bay’s special teams play was horrendous. There was the 30-yard shanked punt and an onside kick gaffe that let Seattle back in it. There was an atrocious defensive play on the two-point conversion that gave Seattle a 3-point lead before another Packers field goal pushed the game to overtime.
At the end of the day, McCarthy’s decision making was subpar. It was the first true sign of decline with a full season of Rodgers at quarterback and though the Packers would go on to make an NFC championship two years later, 2014 was their best team in the tail end of McCarthy’s tenure.
They should have been the NFC representatives in the Super Bowl that year, but McCarthy failed to answer his own calling card. While he preaches self-reflection now that he’s in charge of the Cowboys, avoiding timidity such as this example will have to be a big part of things.
[vertical-gallery id=638027][lawrence-newsletter]