The Texas Rangers tussle with the Kansas City Royals in a Thursday season opener at 4:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rangers vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Kyle Gibson is the projected starting pitcher for the Rangers. He went 2-6 with a 5.35 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 7.75 K/9 and 4.01 BB/9 in 67 1/3 IP over 12 starts in 2020. In 189 career plate appearances against Gibson, Kansas City batters own a mere .625 OPS.
RHP Brad Keller figures to toe the rubber for the Royals. Last season he went 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 5.76 K/9 and 2.80 BB/9 over 54 2/3 IP spanning nine starts. Keller pitched seven shutout innings in his last opener (2019 vs. the White Sox). He logged an 0.27 ERA in five home starts last season.
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Rangers at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rangers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Royals -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rangers +1.5 (-140) | Royals -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Rangers 6, Royals 4
Money line (ML)
The Rangers struggled mightily on the road in the truncated 2020 season and went just 6-24 away from home. It would be easy to overlook the Rangers as underdogs in a game like this but peg the starting pitcher matchup as being much more even than the analysis on a first glance or second look would afford.
The batted-ball metrics under the surface lift Gibson to a more average ERA and ding the fine surface numbers posted by Keller.
It gets dicey with the Texas bullpen, but neither side has a big offensive or run-prevention advantage. TAKE TEXAS (+155) as a play with a fair amount of value. It’s Opening Day, gray-area value, but value nonetheless.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Sticking with the ML side on the Rangers is advisable. PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Tag the OVER 9 (-110) with a lean. The projected strengths and weaknesses of these clubs fit into a garden-variety baseball score, and you’re protected on the number in a 4-4 tie.
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