The Houston Texans are on the cusp of their first playoff berth since 2019 in DeMeco Ryan’s first season at the helm. But they’ll need help to get in, starting with a Week 17 win over the Tennessee Titans.
Houston is tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals at 8-7, but sits outside the playoff field at No. 8 in the conference because of tiebreakers. That could change over the next two weeks, though, with the Texans’ final game being against the Colts.
The outcome of this week’s game, though, could signal a shift in the Texans’ chances from possibly in to likely out of the postseason. According to Sumer Sports, Houston will have a 40.1 percent chance to make the playoffs if it beats Tennessee but just a 16.1 percent chance if the Texans lose.
NFL Playoff Probability Leverage – Week 17 pic.twitter.com/ZzGdrKzt5V
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) December 29, 2023
The New York Times’ NFL playoff model has a slightly different range of outcomes for Week 17. A win would push Houston’s postseason probability to 54 percent, while a loss would drop it to 13 percent. A lot of this hinges on how the rest of their division plays, too. A loss by either or both of the Jaguars and Colts would push the Texans’ chances to above 50 percent if they win.
However, the real deciding match won’t come until Week 18 when the Texans face the Colts. That game will either decide the AFC South champion or one of the AFC’s final wildcard spots. But first, Houston will need to win Week 17.
Fortunately for the club, they’ll get rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud back after a two-game absence. Stroud was playing at a Pro Bowl-caliber level prior to his concussion, and now plays the Titans with a very healthy offense at his disposal. The issue could be on defense, which will be without leading pass rusher Jonathan Greenard and could be without three other defensive line starters as well in Will Anderson, Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins.