The Houston Texans have a mini-bye going as they took care of the Indianapolis Colts 20-17 on Thursday Night Football at NRG Stadium. With Sunday off, there are still games of interest that help the Texans in their run to the playoffs, or perhaps something greater: playoff seeding. Here are the games of interest and how things need to break to favor the Texans.
early games
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills — root for Broncos
The Bills are currently the fifth seed if the playoffs were to start today. At 7-3, a loss would drop them to the same record as the Texans. The Bills only need to lose for insurance purposes in case the Texans somehow fail to secure the AFC South and have to enter the playoffs as a wildcard. A win would give the Broncos a 4-7 record, still too far out of the fray to impact Houston’s chances.
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets — root for Jets
If the playoffs were to start today, the Raiders would be the No. 6 seed. A loss would give them a 6-5 record, the same as the Indianapolis Colts, against whom they hold a tiebreaker. Oakland needs to lose for the same reasons the Bills need to lose: to provide more security for the Texans to make the playoffs in case they let the division slip away. Houston also holds the tiebreaker over the Raiders. The Jets would improve to 4-7, still too far out of the action to impact the Texans.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals — root for Bengals
Unless you are someone who believes in the solidarity of the Watt brothers, rooting for the Steelers to lose would be the Texans’ best interest because Pittsburgh is slowing climbing up the ladder in the wild-card race. Having Pittsburgh at 5-6 on the year and out of the mix sooner bodes well for Houston.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans — root for Jaguars
The Jaguars currently have the tiebreaker over the Titans. A Jacksonville win would give both teams a 5-6 record, and the Jaguars would be ahead because they would have the ultimate head-to-head tiebreaker with a series sweep. The Texans similarly have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Jaguars. The more losses the surging Titans can take at this point, the better.
late games
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots — root for the Patriots to lose
New England losing would drop them down to 9-2 on the year. While a win over the Patriots in Week 13 would drop New England to 9-3 and still possess one of the remaining two first-round byes, it would setup the scenario where a 12-4 Texans team could get a first-round bye presuming the Patriots also finished 12-4. How that could happen expeditiously is if New England loses in Week 12, Houston beats the Patriots in Week 13, New England loses to Kansas City the week thereafter, and the Texans win out. The first step is New England loses at home in Week 12.
monday night
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams — root for Rams
The Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Texans. A loss would drop them to 7-4, and they would still possess the second seed in the AFC. However, much like the New England scenario, if the Texans win out and the Ravens take another loss (San Francisco, at Buffalo, NY Jets, at Cleveland, Pittsburgh), Houston would take one of the two first-round byes.