448 days will separate the New England Patriots’ last win over the Houston Texans and Bill O’Brien’s latest attempt to best his former boss, Bill Belichick.
On Sunday night, the 7-4 Texans host the 10-1 Patriots at NRG Stadium. A numerical value can’t do justice of the change made in 448 days.
The Patriots won a Super Bowl, saw the retirement of Rob Gronkowski come, had a cup of coffee with Antonio Brown, and got off to a 10-1 start to the 2019 season.
The Texans lost a wild-card game at home, fired their general manager, the week before mandatory minicamp, executed multiple season-altering trades, saw J.J. Watt end another season prematurely, and got off to a 7-4 start.
“I think every year we’ve evolved, we’ve had different players,” said O’Brien on Wednesday. “This year with Kenny (Stills) in there and (Darren) Fells and Carlos Hyde and Duke (Johnson), we’re a totally different team — Laremy Tunsil, Max Scharping, Tytus Howard, guys like that.”
Through a series of maneuvers, the Texans have surrounded their quarterback with a promising offense line and a thunder-and-lightning rush attack.
The culmination of their efforts: the NFL’s 10th-ranked scoring offense (24.1 ppg), seventh-ranked yardage offense (381.6 ypg) and ninth-ranked pass-blocking offensive line, in terms of ESPN‘s Pass Rush Win Rate metric (61%).
The Patriots remain the same vaunted opponent, achieving excellence on the offensive, defense and special-team sides despite numerous personnel alterations.
“We’re just a different team. I think every year is different,” continued O’Brien. “I think that relative to what we do this year relative to what we’ve done in the past, I think there’s some carryover, there’s some things that we do that we just really believe in, and then there’s other things that are new.”
Houston’s offense still runs through No. 4, Deshaun Watson. New England’s, No. 12, Tom Brady. However, those around the two quarterbacks aren’t all what they were 448 days ago.
Brady’s Patriots 10-1 record runs through their defense, which allows a top-ranked 10.6 points per game. The offense, after much turnaround, is going through growing pains, yet remains efficient. The Josh McDaniels offense is tenth in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA metric (6%).
The Texans offense is inconsistent, yet explosive; at times, unstoppable when healthy. They are healthy. No offensive starter is slated to miss Sunday night’s prime time bout.
Replacing Sammie Coates, Vyncint Smith, Bruce Ellington, Lamar Miller, Alfred Blue and Ryan Griffin from Houston’s 2018 Week 1 27-20 loss to New England is Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, Keke Coutee, Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson and Darren Fells. A massive boost in productivity.
For the Patriots, there is no longer a premier No. 1 wide-out or tight end to carry the brunt of the workload. Instead, it goes through Julian Edelman and James White on the passing ends. The run game is propped up by Sony Michel, who is yet to face the Texans.
Brady still has weapons. However, they aren’t the world-beating talent that they once were. His offensive line isn’t, either, as they are 26th in ESPN’s PBWR (53%).
“I think both teams are very different than the last time we played them,” said O’Brien. “But I still think you have to look at those games, you have to study those games because there’s a lot of the same players that have played in those games, but the teams are different.”
Sunday night’s matchup between the Texans and Patriots may be a familiar one, but the faces aren’t.