The Tennessee Titans (5-2) play the Indianapolis Colts (3-4) for the second time this season Sunday in Week 8 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Titans vs. Colts odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Tennessee handled business against Indianapolis at home with a 25-16 victory in Week 3 as a 4.5-point favorite. The Titans had 103 more total yards, more time of possession (34:06-25:54), more first downs and better third-down efficiency.
The Colts have won back-to-back games and three of the last four with the latest being a 30-18 victory at the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. Indianapolis is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) and 4-3 Over/Under (O/U).
The Titans have won three straight with the last two coming as underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7 and the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 6. Tennessee is also 5-2 ATS and 4-3 O/U this season.
Titans at Colts odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:01 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Titans +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Colts -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Titans +2.5 (-105) | Colts -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Titans at Colts key injuries
Titans
- WR Julio Jones (hamstring) questionable
- LB Bud Dupree (knee) questionable
- LB Harold Landry (hamstring) questionable
- DB Amani Hooker (groin) questionable
- DB Chris Jackson (foot) questionable
- WR Josh Reynolds (illness) questionable
- WR/KR/PR Chester Rogers (groin) questionable
- DT Teair Tart (groin) questionable
Colts
- WR T.Y. Hilton (quadriceps) questionable
- CB Xavier Rhodes (calf) questionable
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Titans at Colts odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Colts 31, Titans 23
Money line
BET the COLTS (-140) for 1 unit because Indianapolis is the healthier team and the more efficient team that the market is still too low on.
The Titans opened up as slight favorites and have been moved to slight underdogs despite getting more than 75% of the action, according to Pregame.com. This is what’s called “reverse line movement.” It’s suspicious whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
Regardless, Indianapolis should be favored over Tennessee at home. Football Outsiders ranks the Colts ahead of the Titans in total DVOA and third-down efficiency. Also, Indianapolis has a higher net expected points added (EPA) and yards per play than Tennessee.
Let’s take the COLTS (-140) to bounce back and split their season series with the Titans.
Against the spread
PASS because Indianapolis’s money line is only 25 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Colts -2.5 (-115).
While Indianapolis most likely covers the spread in a win, I’d rather play it safe and bet the Colts straight up rather than fuss with the points.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 51.5 (-105) since there’s been sharp line movement towards the Over and Indianapolis’ offense keeps improving. Also, there’s some value in fading Tennessee’s below-average defense after holding the Chiefs to just 3 points last week.
However, Indianapolis surprisingly is Football Outsiders’ top-ranked rush defense. So, there is a world where the Colts turn the Titans into a one-dimensional offense even though RB Derrick Henry is the best in the business.
Week 8 best bets
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