The Florida Gators (6-4, 3-3 SEC) host conference rival No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (10-1, 4-1) Tuesday in a 7 p.m. ET tip-off in Billy Donovan Court at Exactech Arena. Below, we analyze the Tennessee-Florida college basketball betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Tennessee at Florida: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:18 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Tennessee -350 (bet $350 to win $100) | Florida +260 (bet $100 to win $260)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tennessee -7.5 (+100) | Florida +7.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 135.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Tennessee at Florida: Three things to know
- Tennessee has won three straight and four of its past five (3-2 ATS), including an 81-61 rout of Vanderbilt Saturday. The Volunteers are on the shortlist of “best defensive teams in the country.” They are fourth in opponent’s points per game, fourth in defensive rating and seventh in opponent’s turnover percentage.
- The Gators have lost three of their previous four games coming into Tuesday. In their last game, a 72-69 loss at Mississippi State, the Gators kept it close, as predicted by bookmakers with an even-money line, despite being outrebounded 47-26 by the Bulldogs. Florida’s defense is on the opposite end of the spectrum as Tennessee’s and the Gators are ranked 237th in rebounds per game.
- The Volunteers have dominated the Gators since hiring head coach Rick Barnes in 2015. Tennessee is 5-1 (5-1 ATS) and Florida’s only cover was in an 83-70 win as a 12.5-point favorite in January 2017.
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Tennessee at Florida: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Tennessee 67, Florida 63
Money line (ML)
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE. Tennessee is the right side in this one but it is too pricey for me to bet, even outright, against an SEC rival. Stick with the spread.
Against the spread (ATS)
The market is hammering Tennessee to the point that the line has moved from the Volunteers laying around 5 points on the opener to the current number. My natural instinct is to fade the market and Florida is rarely a home dog—the Gators are 2-0 ATS when getting points at home with a plus-11.2-point ATS margin.
I lean FLORIDA +7.5 (-120) for a quarter-unit mostly as a contrarian play to Barney at the bar, who’s just frivolously laying points with favorites.
Over/Under (O/U)
GIMME UNDER 135.5 (-110) for 1 unit as my favorite play in Tennessee-Florida. This is shaping up to be a Pros vs. Joes scenario in the gambling market: According to Pregame.com, more than 70% of the money has been wagered on the Over while 60% of the total bets placed are on the Under.
Since the money column is generally considered the sharp side of the market, let’s follow the money and BET UNDER 135.5 (-110). Tennessee has a 77.8% implied win probability with its money line price and, since the Volunteers have a 4-7 O/U record, there’s a good chance this game plays Under because that fits Tennessee’s style.
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