Taylor Decker is entering the final season of his rookie contract, and the Lions starting left tackle is due for a handsome reward. The Lions have a chance to reach an extension this offseason before the price tag goes up, if they so choose. Or they could play it out, possibly use a franchise tag to keep him or let Decker hit free agency and create a huge hole on Matthew Stafford’s blindside.
What kind of money is Decker looking at in his next deal, be it in Detroit or elsewhere?
The Lions might have unwittingly set the market value higher for their left tackle by paying what they did to lure right tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai as a free agent this offseason. Detroit inked Vaitai, a career backup (although an oft-used one) in Philadelphia, to a 5-year, $45 million deal that could bump to $50 million. A full $20 million is guaranteed at signing.
Vaitai’s deal raised the floor considerably for tackles. While Decker was primed to earn significantly more regardless of this contract, what Vaitai got solidified Decker’s leverage and value, be it in Detroit or on the open market.
Another 2020 free agent tackle, this one more of Decker’s caliber of player, that helps set the value is Jack Conklin. The Browns signed the former Titan right tackle to a 3-year, $42 million contract with $30 million guaranteed at signing.
The $14 million per year is a good bargaining point. Decker and Conklin have largely parallel career arcs, starting out very well as rookie first-round picks in 2016, fading back to average for a couple of years before rebounding with a solid 2019. Both are slightly above-average starters for their positions with a high overall floor but also enough issues that they’re unlikely to ever get much higher than that current status.
Then again, left tackles do earn significantly more. Donovan Smith of the Buccaneers inked a 3-year, $41.25 million deal in 2019. He’s not even close to as good as Decker; per Pro Football Focus, Smith has allowed 10 more sacks, 49 more QB pressures and committed 18 more penalties over the last four seasons than Decker.
Houston’s Laremy Tunsil, another 2016 first-rounder, signed for $66 million over three years just before April’s draft. A full $40 million of that money is guaranteed. Tunsil’s PFF numbers are close to Decker’s, allowing fewer sacks and pressures but committing far more penalties and earning consistently lower run-blocking marks.
Expect Decker’s next contract to come in between what Conklin and Smith got and what Tunsil earned in his extension with the Texans. A 3-year deal for $50 million, with $35 million guaranteed, is the right range for a deal for both sides. Decker could take a longer deal with a lower percentage of his salary guaranteed, too.
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