Chicago Bears fans know the pain and agony of not having a true franchise quarterback all too well. In the team’s 100 year history, not a single player has thrown for 4,000 yards or scored 30 touchdowns, milestones that become more pedestrian by the year.
The Bears took another stab at solving its continued conundrum this offseason, trading for the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback and Super Bowl LII MVP Nick Foles in hopes of pushing, and possibly supplanting, starter Mitchell Trubisky following a disappointing 2019 season.
The trade, along with other free agent acquisitions such as tight end Jimmy Graham and edge rusher Robert Quinn, prove the team is in win-now mode. But would they be better off trying to tank for next year’s prize in the 2021 NFL Draft, Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence?
Lawrence, the sensational sophomore quarterback, led the Tigers to a National Championship over the Alabama Crimson Tide in 2018-19 and became the talk of college football. The 6′ 6″ 220-pound passer was tabbed as the likely first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft two years out and will be the focus of many teams when college football returns this fall.
But when it comes to the Bears, are they in position to land Lawrence? The question became a hot topic this past weekend and many experts and fans had an opinion on the matter.
To start, Ben Brown of Pro Football Focus (PFF) recently published an article detailing which teams should consider tanking for the college phenom this season. The Bears were fourth on their list, and PFF made the case for why they are in good position to potentially land Lawrence:
Nick Foles immediately emerges as the odds-on favorite to win the starting quarterback position for the Bears after being traded from Jacksonville. Foles had the perfect contract to take on, as it contained a guaranteed salary in 2020 with only a $5 million roster bonus thereafter, according to OverTheCap.com.
This gives the Bears the opportunity to evaluate Nick Foles, and if he plays well, the Bears could keep him for two more seasons. If he doesn’t play anywhere near the 2018 Super Bowl MVP level he has flashed, the Bears can move on from him and hopefully be in a position to draft (Justin) Fields or Lawrence in 2021.
Brown argues the Bears could easily move on from Foles if this season doesn’t work out for a small penalty and hopefully be in a position to land Lawrence or another highly-touted college quarterback such as Ohio State’s Justin Fields. Trubisky, meanwhile, could also come off the books depending on how the team decides to handle his fifth-year option.
PFF made their case for the tank while one Bears writer gave fans two options on the matter. NBC Sports Chicago’s Bryan Perez created a “would you rather” scenario regarding Lawrence, asking if fans would rather see an 11-5 season culminate in a loss in the NFC Championship game with Nick Foles, or see them go 3-13 and land Lawrence in 2021.
Would you rather:
1) #Bears go 11-5 and lose in the NFCC game w/Nick Foles at QB
OR
2) Go 3-13 and draft Trevor Lawrence in 2021
— Bryan Perez (@BryanPerezNFL) March 28, 2020
The results, as expected were mixed.
If you asked 3-13 or 11-5 with Nick Foles and that the team reaches the NFC Championship game and what happens next is unknown. Everyone would pick 11-5. Going 3-13 would mean firing everyone, starting over, and not only needing to hit on Lawrence but hit on a new GM and HC.
— Bill Zimmerman (@ZimmermanSXM) March 28, 2020
Tough one but I guess 2. 1 probably means they still don’t have a long term answer at QB and the GM/HC safe for a very long time. Jury still out on the HC IMO. They’ll continue to try to win with defense and be shocked at 6-10 in 2021.
— Joe Ostrowski (@JoeO670) March 28, 2020
#1 and it's not even close.
— Paige Dimakos (@The_SportsPaige) March 28, 2020
2 EASY. Bears would be a top dog for the next decade with Lawrence at QB
— Ryan Teal (@ChiTownTeal1) March 28, 2020
While having a player such as Lawrence don the navy and orange in 2021 would be a pleasant sight to see, I would still opt for the first scenario. The Bears have made the playoffs five times in 20 years, winning only three playoff games. To have the team finish in the NFL’s final four would be worth celebrating, even if it means not winning a Super Bowl. The Bears would still be set up for success and the core of the team would remain the same.
Stumbling to a 3-13 record, while it would land Lawrence, would create another set of problems. A new coaching staff, possibly jettisoning key players and bringing in a whole new regime for the third time in a decade for a player who appears to be the real deal, but isn’t guaranteed to have success in the NFL. One player, even a quarterback, cannot save a franchise if the other pillars are constantly being rebuilt. Teams who don’t have stability usually don’t have success.
The argument on whether or not to tank for a highly-touted quarterback is always an interesting one and is here to stay. But given the Bears current pieces, they’re in win-now mode and should do what it takes to rise to the top. Even if that means trying to catch lightning in a bottle at the quarterback position for yet another year.
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