The Tampa Bay Rays look for a knockout punch against the Houston Astros in the AL Championship Series Thursday at 5:07 p.m. ET at San Diego’s Petco Park. Houston will bat last as the home team at the neutral venue. Below, we analyze the Rays-Astros Game 5 MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Best-of-seven series: The Rays lead, 3-1. The Astros fought off elimination with a tense 4-3 victory Wednesday night.
Rays vs. Astros: Projected starting pitchers
RHP John Curtiss vs. RHP Luis Garcia
Curtiss made three starts and 14 relief appearances in the regular season, logging a 1.80 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The 27-year-old right-hander has made four relief appearances this postseason with 10.38 ERA over 4 1/3 innings.
- Will be the Rays’ opener in this bullpen game. Relievers Aaron Loup, Ryan Thompson, Jose Alvarado, and Aaron Slegers figure to be prominently featured in the mix as the game marches through the middle innings.
Garcia is a 23-year-old rookie who registered 12 1/3 innings pitched in the regular season (one start, four relief appearances). He clocked a 2.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
- The Venezuelan righty has not pitched in the postseason and made his last regular-season start Sept. 9, so it’s expected the Astros counter with an all-hands-on-deck approach to get to a Game 6.
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Rays vs. Astros: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.
Money line (ML)
The Astros (+125) bullpen is in better shape to take on this type of game, but a rookie who hasn’t pitched above A-ball makes for a bit too much risk. The Rays (-139) figure as a decent fade candidate in the go-forward, but that will involve action against National Leaguers. STEER CLEAR OF RAYS -139/ASTROS +125.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Rays -1.5 (+105) | Astros +1.5 (-125)
AVOID … but with a slight lean on Houston in a contest where there is value on the Under.
Over/Under (O/U)
Wednesday, the Rays failed in their quest to win for a fourth straight time in this series. The Under did not. The low side of game totals is now 4-0 in the ALCS. Through four games, Houston and Tampa pitchers have combined for a 2.48 ERA. Have we reached a point where the scales tip into different parts of both pitching staffs?
Not yet. These two teams are capable of penning their way to 2-4 runs allowed in a win and often enough to consider 9 a value number to shade on the low side. Wind in from left and low humidity in the forecast are plusses. The price here doesn’t hurt either. BACK THE UNDER 9 (+100).
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