The Tampa Bay Rays (47-36) and Toronto Blue Jays (43-38) conclude their three-game series Sunday in Toronto’s 2021 home ballpark of Sahlen Field in Buffalo, N.Y. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Toronto has won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 17-4 and Blue Jays OF George Springer homered for a second straight day.
Season series: Rays lead 5-4.
LHP Ryan Yarbrough is on the mound for the Rays. Yarbrough is 4-3 with a 4.48 ERA (86 1/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 across 11 starts and five relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K last Sunday against the Los Angeles Angels.
- Yarbrough got a no-decision May 24 at the Blue Jays with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 4 K in Tampa Bay’s 14-8 victory.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 167 at-bats with a .192/.229/.383 slash line, 36/7 K/BB, 8 HR and 16 RBIs.
LHP Robbie Ray makes his 16th start for the Blue Jays. Ray is 6-3 with a 3.43 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 9-3, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 10 K Tuesday against the Seattle Mariners.
- Ray has received two no-decisions in both starts this season against Tampa Bay in 13 IP with 4 ER (3 HR), 0.85 WHIP and 11.1 K/9.
- vs. Rays on the current roster: 95 at-bats with a .179/.243/.379 slash line, 35/8 K/BB, 4 HR and 6 RBIs.
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Rays at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Blue Jays -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-140) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Blue Jays 7, Rays 4
Money line (ML)
BET 1 unit on the BLUE JAYS (-165) because Toronto’s lineup is stacked with right-handed sluggers and is much more productive vs. left-handed pitching than Tampa’s lineup.
For instance, the Blue Jays rank in the top 10 in wRC+ and wOBA while the Rays hitters are in the bottom 10 of the majors in both of those categories.
Furthermore, Ray’s advanced numbers vs. Tampa this season are very impressive as well; Ray has a 2.74 xFIP, 30.8% K-BB% and .282 wOBA in his two starts against Tampa this season.
Lastly, we are seeing “sharp” line movement towards Toronto since the Blue Jays opened as -146 favorites but have been steamed up nearly 20 cents on the dollar.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS even though the Rays have lost 10 consecutive road games because Tampa Bay has covered 78.3% of its games as a road underdog this season (18-5 ATS) and Toronto is just 12-14 ATS as a home favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-115) for a half unit because a vast majority of the situational trends suggest a higher-scoring affair including Tampa Bay’s 10-1 O/U record when Yarbrough takes the mound and the Rays’ 27-15-2 O/U record on the road this season.
However, it’s only a “lean” because most of the market is backing the Over and, typically, the contrarian approach to sports betting is more profitable.
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