The Tampa Bay Rays (43-27) continue their four-game series with the Seattle Mariners (35-36) Friday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle stole Thursday’s series opener 6-5 with a two-run bottom of the 9th rally capped off by a walk-off single by 3B Kyle Seager off of Rays RP Pete Fairbanks.
Season series: Mariners lead 1-0.
RHP Michael Wacha is on the rubber for the Rays. He is 1-1 with a 4.54 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 over seven starts and four relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 0 K against the Baltimore Orioles Sunday.
LHP Yusei Kikuchi makes his 13th start for the Mariners. He is 3-3 with a 3.67 ERA (73 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Seattle’s 5-4 loss Saturday at the Cleveland Indians.
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Rays at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Mariners +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+145) | Mariners +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Mariners 4, Rays 1
Money line (ML)
GIMME the MARINERS (+100) for 1 unit as a “contrarian play” against a market solidly behind the Rays despite their issues hitting left-handed pitching and because the Mariners are an underrated squad with a 20-15 home record.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the money is on Tampa Bay since the Rays are the best team in the AL East but Wacha is at best a “back of the rotation” starter whose advanced pitching numbers are terrible.
For instance, he grades in the 14th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, opponent’s expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, barrel rate and whiff rate.
Also, Tampa Bay’s lineup really struggles against left-handed pitching and nine of Kikuchi’s 12 outings were quality starts. The Rays have a bottom-7 lineup in several advanced hitting metrics such as wOBA, wRC+ and OPS.
Furthermore, Seattle has a solid bullpen (seventh in WAR) and moved to 15-7 in one-run games with Thursday’s win. There’s more value in the MARINERS (+100) at a coin-flip price.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since both Seattle’s full game and First 5 Innings run lines are out of my price range and Tampa is too good of a road team to try something risky like laying it on the Mariners’ alternate run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8 (-115) for a quarter unit as another “fade the market” play since a majority of the action is on the Over because the situational trends point to this being a higher-scoring affair.
However, I like how the Mariners’ pitching staff matches up with the Rays offense and Seattle’s ballpark is notoriously pitcher-friendly.
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