The Philadelphia Phillies (63-61) host the Tampa Bay Rays (77-48) Tuesday to start a two-game interleague series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Rays lead 2-0.
RHP Drew Rasmussen takes the mound for the Rays. Rasmussen is 1-1 with a 3.64 ERA (47 IP, 19 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in four starts and 25 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 0ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Tampa’s 10-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles Aug. 17.
- Road splits: 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA (23 IP, 8 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB in three starts and 10 bullpen outings.
- Starting pitching splits: 0-0 with a 2.77 ERA (13 IP, 4 ER), 5 H, 4 BB and 12 K in four starts.
LHP Ranger Suarez gets the nod for the Phillies. Suarez is 5-4 with a 1.47 ERA (55 IP, 9 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over four starts and 27 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 4 BB and 2 K Wednesday at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Home splits: 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.75 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB in two starts and 14 bullpen outings.
- Starting pitching splits: 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 10 BB and 11 K in four starts.
Rays at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:48 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+135) | Phillies -1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Prediction
Rays 6, Phillies 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the RAYS (-115) for 1 unit because sharp line movement has steamed Tampa up from a -110 favorite on the opening line to the current number and the Rays have an edge in bullpen pitching and hitting.
Tampa’s lineup has the highest wRC+ in August, the third-best wOBA and ninth-best BB/K while Philly’s lineup is below-average in both wRC+ and wOBA.
Both starters are more openers for a bullpen day and if we are going to see a lot of each bullpen then Tampa becomes an even stronger play.
The Rays relievers rank in the top 10 of FIP, home run per nine-inning rate and K-BB% while the Phillies have the third-worst home run per nine-inning rate and the fourth-worst FIP.
Also, Tampa is 10-5 in interleague contests while Philly is just 6-9, and the Rays have the third-best winning percentage on the road.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Phillies have the third-highest cover rate as a home underdog at 15-6 ATS and Tampa only has a plus-2 run differential in interleague games with an 8-7 ATS record despite being 10-5 overall.
The presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing Philly on the run line while the public is betting the Rays -1.5 (+125) and typically you want to follow the money in sports betting.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-102) for a half unit because Tampa is 20-8-2 O/U as a road favorite, these teams have a combined 21-9 O/U record in interleague contests and the Over has cashed in three of the last five Rays-Phillies meetings since the beginning of last season.
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