The New York Yankees (45-16) host the Tampa Bay Rays (35-26) Wednesday at Yankee Stadium for the 2nd of their 3-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York’s pitching staff shut down Tampa in a 2-0 series-opening victory Tuesday as Yankees SP Gerrit Cole pitched 6 scoreless innings with 5 H, 1 BB and 7 K. Yankees closer Clay Holmes earned his 10th save and extended his scoreless inning streak to 27.
Season series: The Yankees lead 3-2 with a plus-5 run differential in those meetings.
Rays at Yankees projected starters
LHP Shane McClanahan vs. LHP Nestor Cortes
McClanahan is 7-2 with a 1.87 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 72 1/3 IP over 12 starts.
- Last start: Won 2-1 at home Thursday vs. the St. Louis Cardinals with 8 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 2 H, 1 BB and 9 K.
- 2022 vs. the Yankees: One start, a 4-2 home win May 29 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K.
Cortes is 5-2 with a 1.96 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 64 1/3 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: Lost 8-1 Wednesday at the Minnesota Twins with 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 vs. the Rays: One start, a 7-2 win in Tampa May 26 with 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
Rays at Yankees odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:53 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Rays +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Yankees -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-190) | Yankees -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Rays at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 3, Yankees 1
Money line
LEAN RAYS (+115).
Wednesday’s meeting is one of the few times N.Y. doesn’t have a 3-phase edge over its opponent. The reason is Tampa has the better starter on the mound.
Cortes’ numbers are phenomenal this year and he’ll be on the AL All-Star team, but McClanahan is a legit ace and more of a Cy Young contender than Cortes.
McClanahan’s fastball velocity grades in the 93rd percentile (per Statcast) and he has elite movement to his pitches. Also, McClanahan ranks higher than Cortes in K%, BB%, hard-hit rate, exit velocity, whiff and chase rates.
More importantly, there’s reverse line movement headed toward Tampa in the betting market. More than 80% of the bets placed are on the Yankees (-140) according to Pregame.com, but N.Y. opened as -150 ML favorites. It would appear as though the oddsmakers are laying a trap for bettors.
It’s only a LEAN to the RAYS (+115) because they are 3-7 overall as road underdogs and the almighty Yankees are 27-7 as home favorites.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Rays +1.5 (-190) are far too expensive considering the Yankees -1.5 (+155) are 18-16 RL as home favorites and all 5 Rays-Yankees meetings in 2022 have been decided by at least 2 runs.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 6.5 (+100).
There are a lot of Under-friendly trends for this matchup such as Rays-Yankees going Under the total in 4 consecutive meetings and having a combined 7-13 O/U record when these starters get the nod. Also, sharp action has steamed this total down from the 7.5-run opener (per Pregame.com).
But, we are getting to the party late on the total so a lot of the value for the UNDER 6.5 (+100) is already gone.
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