The New York Mets (24-29, 4th in NL East) host the Tampa Bay Rays (35-19, 1st in AL East) for a three-game series at Citi Field beginning Monday with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Below, we analyze the Rays-Mets betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Rays at Mets: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Pete Fairbanks vs. RHP Jacob deGrom
Fairbanks: 5-3, 24 games (1 start), 2.74 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 12.9 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 23 IP
- Strictly being used as an opener Monday, Fairbanks hasn’t gone more than 1 1/3 innings in any of his 24 games, including his first turn as a starter against the Washington Nationals last week. Has given up more than one run just once.
- LHP Josh Fleming is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings. He is 3-0 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 5 appearances spanning 23 1/3 innings.
deGrom: 4-1, 10 starts, 2.09 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 12.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 56 IP
- Left his last start after just two innings due to a hamstring issue with 3 runs allowed but is making his regularly-scheduled turn in the rotation.
- Owns a 1.75 ERA through 6 starts and 36 innings at Citi Field this season.
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Rays at Mets: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Rays
- 1B Ji-Man Choi (hamstring) out
- 3B Yandy Diaz (hamstring) out
- OF Austin Meadows (oblique) out
Mets
- RP Dellin Betances (back) out
Rays at Mets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:32 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Rays 3, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
DeGrom gives the Mets (-189) an obvious edge with the RAYS (+170) going with a bullpen day. There’s value with the visitors, as Rays relievers have a combined 3.46 ERA to rank fourth in baseball.
The Mets are third in baseball with a .832 team OPS against right-handed pitchers, but they’re 10th (.767) against lefties and will be facing Fleming for the bulk of the game.
Take a shot on the RAYS (+170) in what should be a low-scoring contest. New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Rays to win would return a profit of $17.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
There’s still decent value being offered on the RAYS +1.5 (-139) with one run of insurance in the event of a loss. It’s the safer play as a hedge.
The Mets bullpen ranks 17th in MLB with a 4.40 ERA, so the Rays should be able to add some runs once deGrom is removed from the game.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the UNDER 7 (-110) with the strong 2020 numbers of deGrom and the Rays bullpen. The Rays have played to totals of 7 or fewer runs in six of their last seven games. The Mets were shutout 7-0 in a loss to the Atlanta Braves Sunday.
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