The Tampa Bay Rays (43-36) take the field against the Boston Red Sox (44-35) Monday at Fenway Park in the first of a 3-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tamps leads 2-1.
Both teams have won 6 of their last 10 games as they jockey for position in the wild-card hunt while the New York Yankees run away with AL East. Tampa has won 3 games in a row after a 5-game slate with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Boston is 2-4 in its last 6 games as they lost 2 series to the Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs. By the numbers, Boston shouldn’t be a second-place team. The Sox are in the top 10 offensively in Runs/9 (8th), BA (2nd) and OPS (6th). They’re in the top 10 defensively in the same categories (9th, 7th, 7th). The Yankees have been that good, though.
Rays at Red Sox projected starters
LHP Jalen Beeks vs. LHP Austin Davis
Beeks (1-1, 2.70 ERA) makes his 5th start and 21st appearance. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 33 1/3 IP.
- Allowed 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 4 K in 2 IP in his last opening appearance June 29 vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
- In his last 4 outings he has a 7.36 ERA and 1.36 WHIP while striking out 9 in 7.1 innings.
- He tops out around 40 pitches, which should be around 2-3 innings again.
Davis (1-1, 2.45 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 29th appearance. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 29 1/3 IP.
- Steps in for RHP Michael Wacha, who has a “heavy arm” and was scratched from the start.
- Threw 2 hitless frames with 1 BB and 2 K’s May 15 in an opening against the Texas Rangers.
- Has only pitched once since June 18 when he threw a scoreless frame with 1 K against Toronto June 27
Rays at Red Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Rays +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Red Sox -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-170) | Red Sox -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Rays at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 6 Red Sox 4
Money line
These teams haven’t played each other since the first month of the season. The Red Sox really struggled early on, and they’ll face each other 7 times over the next couple of weeks. Red Sox SS Xander Bogaerts (thigh) left Sunday’s game with a thigh laceration, and he’s questionable Monday.
This one is going to be a bullpen game for both sides. Tampa has a slight edge in bullpen ERA at 3.36 (8th) while Boston is 14th at 3.74. Tampa actually hits better on the road with a .244 BA and .304 OBP as opposed to .232 and .299 at home. With those two advantages, we’ll LEAN RAYS (+115).
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Run line/Against the spread
The Rays are 19-18 on the RL on the road, and their last 4 wins have been by multiple runs. There was some value in RAYS +1.5 until that line got over -165.
Over/Under
With this being a battle of bullpens, the total could certainly go 11 runs or more. It’s 83 degrees with a slight 5-mph wind blowing toward the right-field corner. The Over is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings in Boston. I’m not feeling it, though. These two teams combined for 7 runs twice and 5 runs in the other game earlier this season. SLIGHT LEAN to UNDER 10.5 (-122).
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