The Tampa Bay Rays (69-44) meet the Boston Red Sox (65-50) Wednesday at Fenway Park for the second game of their three-game series with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tampa rallied back from a 3-run deficit in the 6th and 7th innings of the series opener before keying the 8-4 victory with a 4-run 9th inning.
Season series: Rays lead 6-4.
LHP Josh Fleming is Tampa’s projected starter. Fleming is 9-5 with a 4.12 ERA (87 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 10 starts and eight relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 6 K against the Seattle Mariners August 4.
- Fleming beat the Red Sox July 30 with a stat line of 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Tampa’s 7-3 home victory.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster (33 PA): 7.82 FIP with a .414 batting average (BA), .482 wOBA, .569 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 89.5 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Nathan Eovaldi makes his 23rd start for the Red Sox. Eovaldi is 9-7 with a 4.07 ERA (126 IP, 57 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 12-4, with 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 4 K Friday at the Toronto Blue Jays.
- Eovaldi is 1-1 this season against Tampa with a 4.38 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 9 H, 4 BB and 13 K in two starts.
- vs. the Rays on the current roster (123 PA): 4.88 FIP with a .286 BA, .387 wOBA, .514 xSLG, 23.6 K% and 89.2 mph EV.
Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:07 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+140) | Red Sox +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Prediction
Rays 7, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
BET the RAYS (+100) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in bullpen pitching and hitting and there’s an obvious “line freeze” situation in the betting market.
For instance, Tampa’s lineup ranks fourth in wRC+, sixth in wOBA and first in hard-hit rate in the majors against right-handed pitching.
Also, Boston’s bullpen is below-average in most advanced pitching metrics while the Rays relievers are top-3 in WAR, SIERA, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning since the All-Star Break.
Furthermore, according to pregame.com, the market is betting Boston at nearly a 60% clip but the line hasn’t budged from the Red Sox (-120) on the opener.
Maybe oddsmakers adjust the line closer to the first pitch, which is why I’d wait to bet this game. Plus if we see “reverse line movement” in Tampa’s direction I’d be okay laying a little vig with the Rays at minus-money.
Either way, I’m BETTING 1 unit on the RAYS (+100) at some point today.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the RAYS -1.5 (+140) for a tiny wager if at all because Tampa has the third-highest cover rate on the road at 36-20 ATS and seven of the 10 Rays-Red Sox meetings this season have been decided by 2 or more runs.
Moreover, Tampa’s lineup could do damage in the late innings for a second straight game against a Boston bullpen that’s bottom 10 in xFIP and SIERA in the second half of the year.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 10.5 (-112) since Tampa’s road games play to the Over at the highest rate in the MLB and the Rays’ AL East games have gone Over at the third-highest rate.
However, that’s probably a big reason why most of the market is also on the Over and I hate following a crowd in sports betting so I’ll stay away from this total.
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