The Boston Red Sox (65-49) host the Tampa Bay Rays (68-44) Tuesday to kick off a three-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tampa has won eight of its last 10 games, which includes a three-game sweep of Boston, and has passed the Red Sox for first place in the AL East. Boston has lost eight of its last 10 games, all on the road, and is 4 games back of the Rays.
Season series: Rays lead 5-4.
RHP Luis Patino is Tampa’s projected starter. Patino is 2-3 with a 4.42 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in seven starts and two relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 3 K against the Seattle Mariners August 3.
- 2021 road splits: 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA (17 IP, 14 ER), 20 H, 6 BB and 20 K in three starts and one bullpen outing.
LHP Eduardo Rodríguez makes his 22nd start for the Red Sox. Rodríguez is 8-6 with a 5.33 ERA (104 2/3 IP, 62 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 10 K at the Detroit Tigers Wednesday.
- Rodriguez picked up a no-decision June 22 at Tampa with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Boston’s 9-5 victory.
- vs. Rays on the current roster (87 PA): 5.08 FIP with a .267 batting average, .360 wOBA, .325 expected slugging percentage, 27.5 K% and 87.9 mph exit velocity.
Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:54 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-190) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Prediction
Rays 7, Red Sox 5
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the RAYS (+105) because Tampa has beaten the Red Sox in five straight meetings and 13 of the last 17 games in Boston.
Furthermore, the Red Sox’s lineup is starting to regress after the All-Star Break and Tampa’s is peaking. For example, Boston’s lineup ranks in the bottom 10 of wRC+, BB/K and WAR while the Rays are in the top 10 in each of those categories.
Also, Tampa’s bullpen has by far the highest WAR in the second half of the season and ranks in the top 3 of SIERA, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate over that span. While Boston’s relief pitching has been mediocre hence their 16th-ranked WAR since the All-Star Game.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Rays +1.5 (-190) because it’s out of my price range but there are so many positive run line trends for Tampa.
For instance, the Rays have the second-best cover rate against divisional foes at 32-18 ATS, the fourth-best cover rate on the road at 35-20 ATS, and are 21-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-120) for a half unit because the Over is 9-1-1 in the last 11 Rays-Red Sox meetings in Boston and Tampa has the second-highest rate of Overs as a road team.
However, my hesitancy is the vast majority of the market is backing the Over and I hate following a crowd in sports betting. Also, the Rays score more than a run per game less against left-handed pitching.
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