The Tampa Bay Rays (2-1) are set to open a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox (0-3) Monday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Michael Wacha is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays. In 2020, he was 1-4 with a 6.62 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 34 IP over eight games (seven starts) with the New York Mets. The strikeout and walk rates show Wacha’s skills were better than his surface numbers indicate.
He is coming off a fine spring with his new team, one in which he allowed just 1 ER in 15 IP, with 12 strikeouts and just 2 walks.
RHP Nick Pivetta is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He made just five appearances (two starts) in 2020, going 2-0 with a 6.89 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 15 2/3 IP with the Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies.
Pivetta got rocked in his three relief outings with the Phillies but fared well in two starts after he was traded to Boston. In those starts, he totaled 10 innings, allowing just two runs and whiffing 13 batters.
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Rays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+125) | Red Sox +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Rays 7, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
Wacha wasn’t nearly as bad as his ERA would suggest in 2020, and this spring he showed improved velocity and solid results. On the other side, two good starts from Pivetta isn’t nearly enough of a sample to buy into him finally putting it all together. He still owns a 5.40 career ERA and is unlikely to keep the Tampa bats in check Monday night.
The Red Sox lost their first three games at home for the first time since 1948, and the streak will likely extend to four.
Back the RAYS (-120).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Getting the RAYS -1.5 (+125) is an even better value than the money line. Pivetta has been prone to blowups throughout his career, and as the road team, the Rays could still break open a close game late.
Over/Under (O/U)
A Wacha-Pivetta matchup is unlikely to end up a pitchers’ duel and could turn into a high-scoring affair. While there is reason to believe in better days ahead for these starting pitchers, particularly Wacha, the fact they have combined for a 5.33 ERA and 2.0 HR/9 the past two seasons can’t be ignored.
The OVER 9.5 (-110) looks like the way to go Monday.
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