The Tampa Bay Rays (53-45) and Baltimore Orioles (49-49) meet Thursday for the final game of a 4-game series. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Rays lead series 8-7
The Rays eked out a 6-4 victory in 10 innings Wednesday, posting their first win in the first 3 games thanks to a 2-run game-winning double by Randy Arozorena. That got Colin Poche off the hook for the loss after blowing the save in the 9th.
The Orioles lost RHP Tyler Wells to lower back discomfort in the 5th inning, but received decent bullpen help and forced extras thanks to a solo homer from Jorge Mateo in the 9th.
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Rays at Orioles projected starters
LHP Ryan Yarbrough vs. RHP Jordan Lyles
The Rays haven’t named an official starters but Yarbrough (0-5, 5.61 ERA) is expected to make his 8th start and 11th overall appearance. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 through 43 1/3 IP.
- Is 0-3 with a 5.27 ERA with a .319 opponent batting average in 27 1/3 IP in 3 road starts and 3 road appearances.
- All 7 HR he has allowed this season has come in road games.
- Has no record with 8 K and 0 HR allowed across 9 1/3 IP in a start and a relief appearance vs. Batimore this season.
Lyles (6-8, 4.79 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 112 2/3 IP.
- Is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA and just 1 HR allowed in 48 IP in 8 home starts, while allowing 15 HR in 64 2/3 IP in 12 road outings.
- Has managed an 0-2 record with a 12.91 ERA with 3 HR allowed in 7 2/3 IP across 2 road starts vs. TB.
Rays at Orioles odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:24 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Rays -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Orioles -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+155) | Orioles +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Rays at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 7, Rays 5
Money line
The ORIOLES (-115) are worth playing on the road in this getaway day finale. Lyles has been shaky all season, but he has managed to keep the ball in the park at home. The Rays (-105) punched him around pretty good in 2 starts in St. Petersburg, but he and Baltimore will get revenge in this one.
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Run line/Against the spread
It’s pricey, but the ORIOLES +1.5 (-190) are worth playing lightly in this finale. The winning margin has been 2.7 runs per game in the first 3 outings of this series, and there is no reason to believe the Baltimore bats won’t come alive against Yarbrough and the bullpen of Tampa Bay.
Over/Under
The OVER 9.5 (+110) is again the play Thursday.
We needed some late-inning heroics, and all those cheers you heard were from Over bettors when Mateo forced extras, tied 4-4, with a total of 8.5.
The Over has connected in 6 of the last 7 games against AL East teams for the Rays while going 7-2 in their past 9 against a right-handed starting pitcher.
The Over has hit at a 7-2-1 pace across the Orioles’ past 10 games while hitting at a 13-4-1 clip in their past 18 vs. AL East teams.
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