The Tampa Bay Rays (23-15) head to Oriole Park at Camden Yards to start a 3-game set with the Baltimore Orioles (15-24) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tampa won its second straight series by taking the rubber match of a 3-game set at the Detroit Tigers Wednesday 6-1. The Rays are 5-5 overall in their last 10 games.
Baltimore snapped a 6-game losing streak and prevented a 4-game sweep by the New York Yankees with a 9-6 win Thursday.
Season series: Tampa swept Baltimore April 8-10 and the Rays had a plus-11 run differential in those 3 meetings.
Rays at Orioles projected starters
LHP Jalen Beeks vs. RHP Tyler Wells
Beeks makes his 1st start since 2019 and will most likely serve as an opener for Tampa’s bullpen day Friday.
- He is 1-0 with a 1.72 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 9 H, 4 BB and 17 K in 9 games out of the bullpen.
Wells is 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 28 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 5-1, at the Detroit Tigers Sunday with 4 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 2 K.
- 2022 vs. the Rays: Loss, 8-0, April 10 at Tampa with 1 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 2 K.
Rays at Orioles odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Rays -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Orioles +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+120) | Orioles +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Rays at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 6, Rays 5
Money line
LEAN ORIOLES (+115) because Tampa’s bullpen has been subpar this year due to the absence of some elite arms, and there’s heavy reverse line movement (RLM) in Baltimore’s direction.
Baltimore’s bullpen has a better ERA, FIP, WAR and home runs allowed per 9-inning rate than the Tampa’s (per FanGraphs).
According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the cash is on the Rays (-140) but Tampa’s ML has been lowered from a -150 opener.
This RLM is particularly interesting because the Rays’ lineup raked Wells in his 2022 debut, and the market is betting that’ll happen again. By dropping the price, the oddsmakers are essentially daring bettors for more Tampa action.
That said, the Rays are 27-5 overall vs. the Orioles over the past 3 seasons so I wouldn’t go heavier than a half-unit on the ORIOLES (+115).
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN ORIOLES +1.5 (-145) only because I don’t love this price, but Baltimore is 12-5 RL as home underdogs with a plus-1.5 RL margin, and the Rays -1.5 (+120) are 11-17 RL as favorites with a minus-1.1 RL margin.
Again, Tampa’s bullpen isn’t as solid this season as years prior (yet) so the ORIOLES +1.5 (-145) could sneak in the backdoor in the late innings.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-122) because the total has been steamed up by a sharp line movement despite the Under being 5-1-1 in the last 7 Rays-Orioles meetings, Baltimore being 0-5 O/U in Wells’ last 5 starts and Tampa is 0-7-2 O/U in its last 9 AL East games.
Also, the weather forecast is predicting temperatures in the mid-to-high-80s with a slight wind blowing out to right-centerfield. Hotter weather typically favors hitting that’s why Overs have been cashing at a higher rate since the start of the season.
The OVER 8.5 (-122) is my favorite play in the Rays-Orioles game Friday.
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