The Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders continue their Eastern Conference Final with Game 4 of their best-of-seven series Sunday at 3 p.m. ET at Rogers Place in Edmonton. We analyze the Lightning-Islanders NHL betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Lightning lead 2-1.
Lightning vs. Islanders: Projected starting goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy vs. Semyon Varlamov
Vasilevskiy finally showed some chinks in the armor, allowing four goals on 35 shots in a Game 3 loss, easily his worst showing of the postseason. All four of the goals were of the even-strength variety, too, before the Isles tacked on an even-strength goal for good measure. Brock Nelson beat him with 3:25 to go in regulation for the tiebreaking goal, so that’s one that he’ll have to forget quickly. Heading into Game 4, you needn’t worry about Vasilevskiy’s head being right. He lets bad losses quickly roll off of his back. He hasn’t had back-to-back losses since the restart, and none since his worst stretch of the season in late February when he dropped a season-high three in a row.
Varlamov was outstanding in Game 2, and adequate in a higher-scoring Game 3. He allowed three goals on 37 shots, including one on the power play which wasn’t his fault. After a little back and forth on who should be the starter, it appears Varlamov has once again seized the starting job for the long run.
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Lightning vs. Islanders: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Islanders 4, Lightning 3
Moneyline (ML)
The ISLANDERS (+130) are just a better value here. The Lightning (-154) won 8-2 in the first game, and 2-1 in the second game with a heartbreaking winner with 8.8 seconds to go. Instead of going into the fetal position, the Isles showed a ton of character to bounce back and pull off the victory, which helped them avoid the broom and make this a series instead. It’s a testament to their heart, and a testament to the coaching of Barry Trotz. He’ll have them ready here.
New to sports betting? A winning $10 bet on the Islanders returns a profit of $13, while a $15.40 bet on the Lightning would fetch a profit of $10 if they prevail.
Puck line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Islanders (+1.5, -209) are just too expensive if you’re looking for a little insurance, as risking more than two times your potential return is bad betting. Conversely, the Lightning (-1.5, +170) are a tempting play if you like Tampa, but it has covered the puck line just once in the first three games in this series. AVOID.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 5.5 (+115) is the way to go. The Under cashed in two of the first three games in this series, with a defensive slog in Game 2 as the outlier. Vasilevskiy looked mortal in Game 3, and the Isles will try to go back to what worked against him in that one. Varlamov will also never be confused with Billy Smith or Chico Resch. He’ll cough up his fair share of goals, too. The Over is a good play in Game 4.
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