The Auburn Tigers (3-6) will attempt to start begin the final month of the regular season on a high note when they host UL Monroe (5-4) at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday.
Auburn is coming off one of it’s worst losses of the season against Vanderbilt. The loss not only dropped the Tigers back to three games under the .500 mark, but forced Auburn into needing to win its final three games in order to qualify for a bowl game. Louisiana Monroe on the other hand is one game away from postseason contention. The Warhawks last won 6 games in 2018, and have only appeared in one bowl game in school history, the Independence Bowl, over a decade ago in 2012.
Auburn’s season may not be going the way anyone within the program hoped, but the Tigers talent still has them tabbed as 24.5-point favorites to capture win number four this week according to BetMGM. ESPN FPI agrees with the sports books assessment of this matchup, as the Power Index gives Auburn a 92.6% chance to take home a victory.
Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show the Warhawks have a bigger opportunity to shock the world than experts believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.
Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne has struggled throughout his time on the Plains, but is playing relatively good football in the second half of 2024. Over the last five contests, the senior has thrown for 225 yards per game, 6 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. While the personal numbers have been fine, Auburn’s offense has only eclipsed 20 points twice in those five games.
The senior hasn’t been bad, but Thorne has not been good enough to help carry an Auburn offense to points on the scoreboard, or more importantly. wins. On the season, Thorne has thrown for 1,825 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions.
On the other side, UL Monroe sophomore Aiden Armenta has been serviceable, but not exceptional, since taking over the starting signal caller job from General Booty. The Albuquerque, NM native has thrown for 898 yards in five starts and parts of three other games this season, accumulating 8 total touchdowns and 8 interceptions. While neither quarterback’s stats exactly “jump off the page”, Thorne clearly has the edge.
The offensive skill player gap is ever more lopsided. The Warhawks do have a stud freshman running back in Ahmad Hardy, who has rushed for exactly 2 more yards (915) than Auburn star Jarquez Hunter (913) has rushed for this season, but the similarities between the skill players stop beyond that. Auburn’s top pass catching quartet of KeAndre Lambert-Smith (657 yards), Malcolm Simmons (349 yards), Cam Coleman (292 yards), and Rivaldo Fairweather (267 yards) have all out produced UL Monroe’s top pass catcher Davon Wells (232 yards) this season.
If you add in the fact Auburn’s starting offensive line is simply bigger and brings more big game experience than UL Monroe’s front five, and the Tigers have a massive edge in just about every category heading into this matchup on Saturday.
On the defensive side, things aren’t very close either. The Warhawks defense has given up just under 5 touchdowns per contest in four road games this season, while Auburn’s defense, which has seemingly improved every week, has yet to allow more than 19 points to a non-conference opponent this season. DJ Durkin’s unit has given up just 16 points per game over the last three contests against SEC competition, giving the unit the clear edge over UL Monroe’s resistance, which has struggled mightily in the Sun Belt.
After taking a look at the tale of the tape, it’s clear Auburn has the edge in every major category ahead of this matchup. The only plausible reason the Tigers aren’t favored by even more probably lies in the fact Auburn has been prone to beating itself many times in the Hugh Freeze era.
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