The undefeated Auburn Tigers travel to College Station this week to take on conference rival Texas A&M to kick off 2023 SEC play.
The Tigers come into this game riding high off their dismantling of Samford in the homecoming game last week, while Texas A&M is also coming off a blowout win, a 47-3 thumping over Louisiana Monroe.
Overall, the Tigers are 3-0 and the Aggies are 2-1.
While Auburn comes in with the better record, A&M’s “12th man” home-field advantage paired with their recent recruiting superiority have them favored by a touchdown according to BetMGM.
ESPN FPI gives the Tigers even less of an implied chance at winning, as the Index gives Auburn just a 32.8% chance of improving to 4-0 on the season.
Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a higher chance of pulling off a win in College Station than the experts believe? As always, we’ll start with the quarterbacks.
Auburn signal caller [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] broke out in a monstrous way against Samford. After struggling with inconsistencies in his first two games as a Tiger, Thorne lit up the stat sheet in week three, accumulating 405 all purpose yards and 3 total touchdowns.
Thorne did throw two interceptions however. Turnovers have been a problem for the Michigan State transfer, as he now has 4 of them in just 3 games.
In those three games, Thorne has thrown for 517 yards, picking up 4 touchdowns while throwing 3 interceptions.
Auburn’s QB1 has also shown an unexpected knack for running the ball, as he’s rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns, fumbling once.
On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M quarterback [autotag]Conner Weigman[/autotag] has been outstanding.
In three games, Weigman has thrown for 909 yards and eight touchdowns.
The sophomore’s 909 yards rank 14th among all FBS quarterbacks, and his eight touchdowns have him tied for 14th in the nation.
The young star has also added a nice 69 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
For the first time this season, Payton Thorne and Auburn lose the quarterback matchup in the tale of the tape, and by a wide margin.
Auburn is a little closer to A&M when you look at the offensive lines and running back rooms.
The Aggies are averaging 129.7 rushing yards per game and have scored 6 times on the ground this season.
Auburn meanwhile has been great on the ground, averaging nearly 100 more yards on the ground than the Aggies.
Between Thorne, [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag], [autotag]Jarquez Hunter[/autotag], and the other Auburn running backs the team has rushed for 215.7 rushing yards a game, scoring 10 times on the ground.
The Tigers are averaging 5.2 yards per carry, which is tied for 24th in the FBS.
Texas A&M’s offensive line has been better in pass protection however. Starter [autotag]Conner Weigman[/autotag] has only been sacked twice this year, and wasn’t sacked at all in the loss against 20th ranked Miami.
The Auburn offensive line has allowed Payton Thorne to be sacked 5 times in three games against sub-par competition, although 3 of those 5 came against Cal when the offense looked lost.
Despite the slightly bigger struggles in pass protection, Auburn gets the edge up front because of their rushing prowess in the early season.
In terms of defense, it’s impossible to give either team an edge because both units excel at stopping what the opposing offense is best at.
[autotag]Jimbo Fisher[/autotag]’s team has thrown the ball 36 more times this year than they have run it. The team has nearly as many completions (87) as they do rushing attempts (91).
This play style caters right into the strength of an Auburn defense that is exceptional against the pass and mediocre against the run.
The Tigers have allowed just 160.5 pass yards per game to opponents this year. That number currently ranks 17 in the nation.
As good as Auburn’s defense has been against the pass, Texas A&M’s has been nearly as good against the run.
The Aggies rank in the middle of the pack in rush yards allowed per carry with 4.3, but they rank high in opponent’s total rush yards per game (98.3) because of their offense’s ability to make the opponent play from behind.
Because of the play styles of both offenses playing into the strengths of the opposing defenses, I’m calling this a wash.
This game is going to be close. How close is going to depend on the play of Texas A&M quarterback [autotag]Conner Weigman[/autotag].
If Weigman can take over the game and put up points on Auburn’s pass defense it’s going to be a tough ask for the Tigers offense to keep up.
If Weigman struggles, Auburn has a chance to improve to 4-0 for the first time since 2019.
Auburn kicks off SEC play against Texas A&M on Saturday at 11 CST.
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