The Auburn Tigers (2-5) will attempt to put an end to a brutal losing stretch this weekend when they travel to Lexington, KY to face off against the Kentucky Wildcats (3-4) Saturday evening.
Auburn has lost four-straight SEC contests entering its final road game of the campaign. While the Tigers are only one of seven teams in the country to accumulate at least 6.5 yards per play on the offensive end while holding opponents to under 5.0 yards per snap on the defensive side, Hugh Freeze’s squad is just 2-5 and on the brink of postseason elimination with five contests left to play. Kentucky on the other hand is just one game better, but has the opportunity to put itself well aligned for a bowl game with a victory over the Tigers this weekend.
Auburn’s inability to win close football games along with Kentucky’s home-field advantage and more consistent play have the Wildcats as slight, 2.5-point, favorites entering this matchup according to BetMGM. ESPN FPI seems to be in agreeance with the sports books, as the Index gives Kentucky a 51.3% chance to tame the Tigers on Saturday.
Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show the wrong side is favored on Saturday?? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.
Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne has taken a step forward in his second season on the Plains, although his play still leaves much to be desired, specifically when it comes to taking care of the football and putting away games. The senior has thrown for 1,414 yards this season. Accumulating 11 touchdowns through the air and another 2 on the ground. Unfortunately his 5 early season interceptions put a damper on total of 6 throws to the opposition, casting a dark cloud on what has otherwise been a decent campaign.
Kentucky starter Brock Vandagriff has not been very good either. The junior has thrown for only 240-plus yards once this season, finding the end zone 6 times through the air while turning it over 4 times through 7 games. Vandagriff has been effective as a rusher, although his yardage total of 126 doesn’t indicate it at all considering he’s been sacked 15 times already this year. Neither quarterback in this contest brings much “game changing” ability to the table, although Thorne gets the advantage due to his slight edge in experience and big-play ability.
Auburn’s skill positions and offensive line also get the edge in Saturday’s game. Jarquez Hunter and the Auburn rushing attack has been phenomenal this season. Hunter is currently fifth in the SEC in rush yards despite receiving under 100 total carries so far, while the Auburn rushing attack as a group has averaged just under 5 yards per attempt. Kentucky on the other hand is averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Without a clear star in the backfield and a dominant offensive line, the Wildcats offense has struggled to move the ball on the ground this season.
The gap is even wider through the air. While Auburn star wide out KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Kentucky star Dane Key both have about 500 receiving yards through the air this season, Lambert-Smith has managed his total while co-existing with Malcolm Simmons (289 yardds), Cam Coleman (259 yards), Rivaldo Fairweather (191 yards), Perry Thompson (123 yards), and Robert Lewis (113 yards). On the other side, only two Wildcats have surpassed the century mark in receiving yardage behind Key this season, with Barion Brown (270 yards) being the lone receiver to do so. Auburn has a clear edge on the offensive side of the ball in this game.
Defensively, the story flips dramatically. Kentucky has managed three victories this season almost completely because of a defense that leads the FBS in “havoc rate”. The Wildcats are coming off a season-worst 48-20 defeat against Florida, but the defense has been an elite unit other than that blip. Auburn’s defense has trended in a different direction, as the Tigers have gotten better every week, although DJ Durkin’s unit is still far from where it hopes to be by season’s end. The defensive edge goes to the Wildcats, although the gap is closer after last week.
In the end, this game seems about as close to a toss-up as an SEC matchup can be. Kentucky’s position as slight favorites seems to be the correct one, but Auburn should be viewed as more of a close counterpart than underdog.
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