The New York Yankees (10-5) finish a four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays (7-8) Sunday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. We analyze the Yankees-Rays betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Yankees at Rays: Projected starting pitchers
LHP James Paxton vs. RHP Charlie Morton
Paxton has been hit around to a 13.50 ERA through his first two starts, allowing six earned runs in just four innings pitched. He has five strikeouts and only one walk but has given up a total of 12 hits.
- Paxton pitched to a 4.33 ERA away from Yankee Stadium last year compared to his 3.35 ERA in his home park.
- He made two starts against the Rays in 2019 and went 0-1, yielding four earned runs over 12 total innings.
Morton owns a 5.52 ERA through three starts with nine earned runs allowed over 14 2/3 innings. He has 16 strikeouts against just two walks but has allowed three home runs.
- Morton produced a sparkling 2.59 ERA across 17 starts and 104 1/3 innings in his home park last season.
- He had a 3.80 ERA over four starts against the powerful Yankees last season and held them to a modest four home runs.
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Yankees at Rays: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Yankees
- RP Aroldis Chapman (COVID-19 recovery) out
- OF Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) doubtful
Rays
- RP Jose Alvarado (personal) questionable
- OF Manuel Margot (personal) questionable
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Yankees at Rays: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Rays 6, Yankees 4
Moneyline (ML)
The RAYS (-110) took two of the first three in this series, winning 1-0 and 5-3 while losing the first half of Saturday’s doubleheader 8-4.
The likely absence of Stanton hurts the Yankees (+100) against one of the AL East’s top pitchers in Morton. New York will also need a longer outing than it has received thus far from Paxton after the bullpen work in Saturday’s two games.
The New York and Tampa Bay bullpens rank 10th and 11th in the majors by ERA this season, respectively, but Morton can be expected to pitch deeper into this game to help give his relievers a break.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Rays to win returns a profit of $9.09.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Following the logic above, let’s take RAYS -1.5 (+180) on the alternate line to up our profit margin. The Yankees are 10-5 against the spread this year while the Rays are just 6-9, but I like Morton to limit damage via the long ball and keep the Yankees in the park, especially with Stanton out of the lineup.
Over/Under (O/U)
These two AL East rivals put up 12 and 8 runs in Saturday’s two seven-inning games. Take the OVER 8.5 (-110) as they return to the customary nine innings for the series finale.
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