The New York Yankees (58-21) and Cleveland Guardians (39-36) clash in the Sunday finale of a 3-game series at Progressive Field. First pitch is slated for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: New York leads 5-0.
The Yankees swept a Saturday twin bill and are looking to close out a 6-game season sweep of the Guardians. New York is 6-1 in its last 7 games.
The Guardians were 3-1 in the previous 4 games before the Yankees came to town. And Cleveland was coming off a big month: the Guardians played .667 (20-10) ball over their last 30 games. They’ve been outscored by New York 38-12 in this season’s 5 games.
Yankees at Guardians projected starters
LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Triston McKenzie
Montgomery (3-1, 3.27 ERA) has clocked a 1.02 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 85 1/3 IP in 15 starts.
- Notched a 1.95 ERA from May 24-June 17 but has allowed 9 runs on 15 hits over his last 12 2/3 IP.
- Has given New York 6-plus innings in 7 straight starts. The Yanks may look for an extra inning-plus from him to right the bullpen after Saturday’s twin bill.
McKenzie (4-6, 4.03 ERA) has made 13 starts and 1 relief appearance. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 80 1/3 IP.
- Struggled in his only other career start against New York, allowing 3 R and 8 base runners in 4 IP vs. the Yankees in April 2021.
- Has struggled at home, albeit in just 22 1/3 IP, with a 4.84 ERA at Progressive Field (allowed 7 R in his last home start).
Yankees at Guardians odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:52 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Guardians +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
- Run line (RL): Yankees -1.5 (+102) | Guardians +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Guardians 4
Money line
Cleveland’s record looks to be a bit inflated by a 14-9 mark in 1-run games. New York has owned the Guardians and is a worthy favorite. BACK THE YANKEES (-165).
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Run line/Against the spread
Statcast quality-of-contact figures are bullish on New York’s offense and bearish on Cleveland’s.
McKenzie is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and the Yankees have pounded fly-ball pitchers to the tune of a .749 OPS (through Friday, and that’s with a low .248 batting average on balls in play). Cleveland has scuffled against lefties (MLB-worst .614 OPS).
TAKE NEW YORK -1.5 (+102).
Over/Under
Montgomery has benefited from a .257 batting average on balls in play. McKenzie has gotten by with a .227 BABIP. Mix that in with some fatigued bullpens, and TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (+100).
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