The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Martinsville Speedway Sunday at 2 p.m. ET for the Xfinity 500. Below, we analyze the Xfinity 500 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
Xfinity 500: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The Cup Series continues its playoffs with the Virginia race. Penske Racing driver Brad Keselowski (+550 for Sunday’s 500) is on the Busch pole. He was third in the spring race, and has finished 10th or better in nine straight Martinsville Cup starts, including eight finishes of fifth or better.
- Keselowski has won just twice in 21 Cup starts at “The Big Paperclip,” but he has 10 top-5 showings and 15 top-10 results with 888 laps led and a 10.48 Average-Finish Position (AFP), third-best among all active drivers.
- Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. posted a win in the spring race at Martinsville, and he has back-to-back victories at the track while rattling off finishes of fourth or better in five of his past six at the short track.
- Penske’s Ryan Blaney was the runner-up in the first run this season at the venerable Virginia track. He has three consecutive top-5 finishes in the Cup Series at Martinsville.
- Starting spot matters at Martinsville, as the past three winners have started fifth or better, and nine of the past 10 drivers to claim checkers have started 10th or higher.
Who is going to win the Xfinity 500?
TRUEX JR. (+350) is the chalk, and rightly so, as he has back-to-back victories at this track. He is also hungry for a win after getting edged out by teammate Kyle Busch at Texas on Wednesday. MTJ needs a victory to punch his ticket into the final four for a possible championship. He needs a third-consecutive checkered flag, which is difficult at any track, but anything less will not do. Truex goes off second on Sunday.
MTJ has the two straight wins, but there is still risk, as he has only seven top-5 finishes and 13 top-10 runs in 29 career Cup starts at Martinsville, posting a rather pedestrian 16.83 AFP.
JGR’s DENNY HAMLIN (+550) is the last driver to come away with at least three consecutive wins at Martinsville. The Virginia native is tied with Keselowski for the second-shortest odds on the board. Hamlin ran into trouble in the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500, the last start at Martinsville, but he had three straight top-5 finishes at the track before that. He is also second among active drivers with five grandfather clocks in the shop – Martinsville awards a grandfather clock to the winner of this race. Hamlin is set to start fourth on Sunday.
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Hendrick’s ALEX BOWMAN (+2000), who starts third in the grid, has some longer odds, but is worth a small-unit play. He has had mixed results in his previous five Cup starts at the track, but he was a solid sixth in the spring race.
Xfinity 500 long-shot bet
It’s now or never for Hendrick Motorsports driver JIMMIE JOHNSON (+3500), who wraps up his stellar career in two weeks. He hasn’t won in an eternity, and it would be a storybook finish to grab checkers at Martinsville. He has done it nine times before, and he was a respectable 10th in the spring run. Johnson will have his work cut out, however, as he starts 27th.
Don’t forget about CLINT BOWYER (+3500), either. He is also calling it a career, and he could make noise at Martinsville for one last hurrah. Bowyer won the spring 2018 installment at Martinsville, a race run on a Monday because of a postponement due to snow. Four of his past seven runs have been good for seventh place or better at this place. Bowyer goes off 16th.
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