Yes, CM Punk is the favorite now to win the 2024 Royal Rumble. But that doesn’t mean he should.
There’s something to be said for striking when the iron is hot. One of the first sports I wrote about professionally was boxing, and in the sweet science, promoters often put desirable fights on the back burner hoping they become even bigger down the road, missing out on some prime matchups as a result. Someone loses a fight unexpectedly, someone gets hurt, etc.
WWE isn’t always swayed by what’s hot at any particular moment, choosing to have faith that its long term vision will pay off better than switching gears based on things like the unexpected popularity of certain performers. This explains why Sami Zayn didn’t get to face Roman Reigns last year at WrestleMania, and why it hasn’t put a major championship on LA Knight yet.
But as a popular cliché goes, there are levels to these things, so when an incredibly noteworthy main event player drops in its lap, even WWE has to chart a new course. Such is the case with CM Punk, who no one in the company could possibly have thought would have been available for WrestleMania 40 even four months ago.
Love him or despise him, Punk is a proven attraction in an era where that is an increasingly rare commodity. AEW, while it was probably correct to fire him, still has a void from the star power (and probably merchandise sales) he took with him. His appearance this week on Raw may have saved the ratings from tanking against two Monday Night Football games, and he might even be shaking up the wrestling media rights picture for 2024 and beyond.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Punk announced he will be in the Royal Rumble match in January and set in motion a feud everyone already was salivating about with Seth Rollins. The World Heavyweight Champion’s real world dislike for Punk is now being skillfully woven into storyline cloth the way only WWE can do it.
Putting Punk in the Rumble is a no-brainer, because it would make no sense to leave him off WWE’s second-biggest event of the year (sorry, SummerSlam, but it’s true). He’s also expected to win it, which gives WWE a direct path to a Punk-Rollins WrestleMania match that could headline one of two nights in Philadelphia.
(It also allows Punk to, as my son says, “pump fake” challenging Roman Reigns, sowing the seeds for a clash between them down the road.)
All of this is fine in a vacuum. The problem is that it adds unnecessary drama to another narrative that didn’t need any more of it: Cody Rhodes getting a rematch against Reigns and … I’ll say closing the loop because the actual phrase used for his journey has been used way too much.
While a strong argument could be made that WWE did what the boxing promoters I mentioned have been guilty of and missed the best moment possible for Rhodes, it obviously felt there was more to be wrung from his tale. Hence, Cody vs. Roman is a popular pick for the night 2 WrestleMania main event, where you would figure he would finally end Reigns’ historic Universal Championship run.
Prior to Punk’s arrival, Rhodes would have been my pick to win the Rumble, putting him in elite company as only three other men have ever won the match in consecutive years: Hulk Hogan in 1990-91, Shawn Michaels in 1995-96 and Stone Cold Steve Austin in 1997-98. He’s also on Raw while Reigns is on SmackDown, but since the Rumble match winner can choose any champion to challenge, a Rhodes victory would fit in with WWE logic the best possible way.
That now feels unlikely, though WWE teasing it with a final two of Punk and Rhodes would be fun. The guess here is that Rhodes loses and is distraught, figuring his best chance to get his rematch with Reigns is gone. WWE will play up the idea that Cody is suffering through yet more adversity, even though that’s pretty much been his lot in life for the better part of eight months now and we’ve reached the point of diminishing returns for putting the American Nightmare through the ringer.
But wait, you say. WWE has other events on the oft discussed Road to WrestleMania, any of which could be used to get Rhodes back on track. A theory being bandied about is that his title shot could be the prize in Elimination Chamber, particularly since the 2024 event is being held in Australia, and WWE will want to make it as significant as possible.
That’s all well and good, just excessively complicated. We don’t need to see Rhodes squirm in anguish as we’ve seen that plenty. Punk is on Raw with Rollins, and when two wrestlers are on the same show, sometimes they can get title opportunities literally just by asking for them.
I’m not Triple H and would never pretend to be, but here’s what I’d do: Get down to a final four in the Men’s Rumble that consists of Punk, Rhodes and any other two people you think the crowd would believe might have a chance (Drew McIntyre and Solo Sikoa, maybe?). Have it come down to the two favorites.
But don’t have Punk win. He’s the one who should so some squirming now after being gone so long. Have him fret about coming this close to having his WrestleMania main event, with Rollins rubbing his nose in it the next night on Raw.
Rhodes goes on to challenge Reigns, as expected. WWE spends the weeks in-between dragging out the Punk-Rollins program before figuring out some other way to arrive at the same destination, because that’s the feud that could use the extra twists and turns.
It’s not what I expect to happen come Jan. 27. But I hope it does.
