Tag: World Series Game 1 best prop bets

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The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks meet Tuesday for Game 4 of the World Series. First pitch at Chase Bank Field in Phoenix is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX).  After taking a look at FanDuel Sportsbook’s MLB odds, here are the 4 best World Series Game 4 prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s MLB picks and predictions.

Best-of-7 series: Rangers lead 2-1

The Rangers registered a 3-1 triumph Monday night to take a 2-1 series lead. Both bullpens were heavily involved in trying to take the all-important momentum game, an odd-numbered game in a tied series. And on Tuesday, both sides will essentially look to bullpen their way through most of the available outs. That figures to color how Game 4 sets up for prop bets.

The scheduled Game 4 starters are LHP Andrew Heaney for Texas and LHP Joe Mantiply for Arizona.

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World Series Game 4 prop bet predictions

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:36 a.m. ET.

OF Corbin Carroll record 2+ total bases (-115)

With the lefty Heaney starting, some bettors may shy away from Carroll, who during the regular season clocked a .721 OPS against port-siders (vs. a .928 OPS against righties). But the odds-on NL Rookie of the Year is batting .281 with a double, a triple and 2 home runs in these playoffs.

He fares well in his home park (.902 OPS regular season) and bats high in the order where he’s more likely to get an extra look. Carroll is 1-for-1 lifetime against Heaney. As this game develops, the Ranger bullpen becomes key. That’s a fly-ball leaning group, and the Arizona center fielder hit fly-ball types quite well in the regular season (.828 OPS).

7th inning OVER 0.5 runs (-110)

This contest has a fade lean on both bullpens. With surface ERAs of 2.85 (Arizona) and 3.68 (Texas), both clubs are too far out over their skis. Both have benefited from generous rates around the margins and are toting around significantly higher expected-ERA numbers.

Look to leverage quality hitting on both sides that have now seen most of the relief hurlers once. Consider this play on scoring in the 7th or the Over 0.5 (-114) in the 8th or both.

DH Mitch Garver record 2+ total bases (+130)

Garver is a batter with some leverage in this one. The right-handed batter is just 1-for-11 in the Series, but his 1 hit was a home run in Game 2 and he had a 3-hit performance in ALCS Game 6.

Garver slashed a .270/.370/.500 in the regular season. He owns an .822 OPS in the postseason, and that’s with a .235 batting average on balls in play.

1B Nathaniel Lowe record 2+ total bases (+120)

Game 4 figures to be played out by the bullpens. The 1 sector of leverage that really pops in the bullpen splits is the performance of Arizona relievers vs. lefty batters. That’s part of Arizona’s strategy in utilizing a southpaw — Mantiply — as the opener: trying to lessen the impact on Ranger lefty bats.

During the regular season, Diamondback relievers allowed a .304 weighted on-base average (FanGraphs) against right-handed bats but a .327 wOBA against lefty bats.

Looking at lefties with some value in the Texas order brings us to Lowe, who has hit just .203 in the postseason. But the Rangers 1B does have 3 home runs. Since 2021, he’s clocked an .823 OPS in road games.

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The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks meet in Monday’s Game 3 of the World Series. First pitch at Chase Bank Field in Phoenix is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX). After taking a look at FanDuel Sportsbook’s MLB odds and the 4 best World Series Game 3 prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s MLB picks and predictions.

Best-of-7 series: Tied 1-1

The Rangers earned a 6-5 extra-inning comeback win in Game 1 Friday. The Diamondbacks held Texas batters to just 4 hits in a 9-1 conquest in Game 2.

Since 2021, 6 of the last 7 Texas-Arizona games have hit the Over. With a potentially iffy back-from-injury Max Scherzer vs. rookie Brandon Pfaadt pitching matchup, we’ll look to lean into that Over trend with finding the best prices for prop action.

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World Series Game 3 prop bet predictions

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:03 a.m. ET.

1st inning OVER 0.5 runs (-113)

Scherzer has had his issues since his return from arm trouble and has yielded more-than a few missiles in his relatively few innings. The Rangers jumped all over Pfaadt the only other time they saw him. With bats overall feeling comfortable for each side over the last week or so, figure on a decent chance for a run-or-more at the outset.

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3B JOSH JUNG record 2+ total bases (+125)

Jung has slashed a robust .302/.328/.566 in playoffs. He slammed 2 round-trippers off Pfaadt in the rookie’s Major League debut in May. Pfaadt allowed an .858 OPS against right-handed bats during the season. And as a power right-handed bat, yes, Jung does favor hitting against lefties. But Arizona has 3 port-siders in the bullpen who may well be pressed in late-game duty.

7th inning OVER 0.5 runs (-110)

This game, and likely the series as a whole, has a fade lean on both bullpens. Both have pitched over their heads for several weeks now and have benefited from generous rates around the margins (.250 batting average on balls in play for Texas, for instance). Both are stocked with pitchers going further into season-innings fatigue territory in some cases. Both are more “seen” after the weekend exchange of games — with a parade of relievers — and more vulnerable when batters get 2nd and 3rd bites at the apple.

LF CORBIN CARROLL to record a stolen base (+225)

Carroll figures to lead off for Arizona in this game, and the speedy Diamondbacks, whose 166 regular-season stolen bases ranked 2nd in MLB, will likely want to bother, harass and test Scherzer early.

Carroll has a .381 OBP and 4 stolen bases this postseason. He owns a double-digit walk rate over that stretch and will likely be tasked with being a high-pitch-count pain in the neck for Scherzer. Texas C Jonah Helm is solid against the running game, but Scherzer figures as gettable for the fleet-footed Carroll.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers meet in Game 2 of the 2023 World Series Saturday in Arlington. First pitch at Globe Life Field is at  8:03 p.m. ET (FOX). After taking a look at BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds, here are the 4 best World Series Game 2 prop bets to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s MLB picks and predictions.

Best-of-7 series: Rangers lead 1-0

In Friday’s lid-lifter, Texas battled back from a 5-3 deficit in 9th to eventually win 6-5 in 11 innings. RF Adolis Garcia went 3-for-4, and it was his walk-off home run that ended the Game 1 thriller.

Game 2 always feels like a have-to-have-it contest for the losing club in an opener. And the 2nd game of this Fall Classic is a pitching matchup that looks very even on paper. RHP Merrill Kelly will twirl it for Arizona; Texas counters with LHP Jordan Montgomery.

The plusses and minuses those 2 hurlers bring to the table will be joined by how the bullpens were used in Game 1. And that will be the core of how we target certain prop bets for Saturday’s game.

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World Series Game 2 prop bet predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.

2B Ketel Marte OVER 0.5 RBIs (+175)

As a team, Arizona does not hit southpaws particularly well. Its regular-season OPS of .710 against lefties ranked 21st in the league. But the Diamondbacks have upped that mark a bit — to .724 — in the postseason.

One of the Diamondbacks’ best bats against left-handed pitching is the switch-hitting Marte, who batted .313 with an .879 OPS against port-siders in the regular season. He only has 6 lifetime at-bats against Montgomery, but in those 6 at-bats, he’s made contact 5 times and has gathered 3 hits, including a triple.

On Friday, Marte went 1-for-5 with a double and 2 runs batted in. He has extra-base hits in 3 straight games and has hit safely in every game of the postseason. On a night when Montgomery can be faded, and batting in the meat of the Arizona order, Marte is a solid pick to garner an RBI or 2.

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C Gabriel Moreno OVER 0.5 RBIs (+195)

Mining the same vein as above. Moreno clocked a regular-season .899 OPS against left-handers. He went 0-for-5 Friday, but he had garnered a hit in each of the last 6 games of the NLCS and is another every-day producer (can catch or be slotted as a DH after Friday’s marathon) in the heart of the Arizona batting order.

Moreno has made contact in each of 7 career at-bats against Montgomery. He has hit him hard with 2 singles, a double, and a home run.

Both teams to score 4+ runs: YES (+180)

Figure Game 1 as being a taste. The surface lines for the Game 2 starters have most bettors figuring on a lower total in this one. But both have indicators, especially over their postseason efforts, that say this one could play out with some home runs and crooked numbers.

Merrill Kelly has allowed rocket contact while managing a post a 2.65 ERA across 3 playoff starts. He has benefited from a .162 batting average on balls in play and a 93.8% left-on-base rate. Montgomery has gotten by with a low rate of fly balls leaving yards as home runs. Those numbers figure to regress.

The bats are loose, limber, and 1 day into a hitting background that bothered no one Friday. And they are 1 significant chunk into the bullpens of both sides, particularly the back end for the Arizona relief corps.

Jordan Montgomery OVER 16.5 outs (-105)

This is at once a hedge against some of the offensive surge ahead and respect for a workhorse pitcher who has given the Rangers over 5 innings of work in 8 of his last 9 starts (regular and postseason). Montgomery is an unflappable sort, and in this game pitches with the luxury of a series lead and a general wish of Texas manager Bruce Bochy to back off the bullpen a bit after 5 relievers were used Friday.

Montgomery makes this start on 7 days’ rest, but he has a solid history of turning in good work after longer rest intervals.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers meet for Game 1 of the 2023 World Series on Friday at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. After taking a look at BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds, here are the 5 best World Series Game 1 prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s MLB picks and predictions.

The Diamondbacks fly into the Metroplex on a high after winning a pair of games in Philadelphia to get back to their 1st World Series since 2001. The D-backs tied for the fewest wins of any of the 12 playoff teams, but none of that matters anymore. They’re 4 wins away from a title.

The Rangers have been road warriors to get to this point, and Texas has excelled as the underdog. It will be interesting to see how it responds as a favorite at home. The Rangers are just 1-3 in 4 postseason games at GLF, including 3 straight losses in the ALCS against the Houston Astros.

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World Series Game 1 prop bet predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:01 p.m. ET.

Diamondbacks RHP Zac Gallen OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-110)

Gallen takes the ball for Game 1 for the Snakes. It’s been a quiet postseason for the team’s ace, posting a 5.24 ERA with 2 wins and 2 losses. However, he has had a penchant for going deep into games this season, and he has lasted at least 6 innings in 2 playoff starts, including Saturday against Philadelphia.

Gallen has managed 13 strikeouts in 22 1/3 IP in the postseason, and he racked up 220 Ks in 210 IP during the regular season.

He made a start in this park on May 2, working 5 IP with 3 ER, 7 H and 0 BB while posting 6 K in a no-decision. I think Gallen is amped for this Game 1 matchup, and he lasts long enough to get over the hump in whiffs.

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Rangers C Mitch Garver UNDER 0.5 hits (+130)

I really want to cheer for Garver. He is a tough guy who has had a great postseason. However, he was smoked in the ribs in Game 7 by a pitch, and should be in considerable pain. The good news is that he has no breaks or fractures, but playing catcher, even with sore ribs, and getting hits at the plate is a tough ask. At plus-money, this is a strong play.

Rangers OF Adolis Garcia OVER 0.5 RBI (+110)

Garcia had a blistering hot bat in the ALCS, winning MVP honors with 10 hits in 28 at-bats (.357) with 5 HR and 15 RBI. In fact, he has driven in at least one run in 6 consecutive postseason games, while managing 8 RBI in 4 playoff outings at home. Keep riding the Adolis wave until it crashes.

Rangers RHP Nathan Eovaldi OVER 1.5 walks (+105)

Eovaldi has been a tremendous and steady veteran presence in the rotation for Texas, bringing a wealth of postseason experience to a team desperately in need of it. The Rangers are 4-0 in his playoff starts, and he has gotten the win in each of them.

However, he walked 3 batters last time out in Houston on Sunday, and he had 2 or more BB in his final 5 regular-season outings, too. The fact he goes so deep into games gives him even more opportunity at the occasional walk. Reaching 2 free passes, especially at plus-money, is too hard to pass on.

First 5 innings total runs: UNDER 4.5 (-130)

I think we’re going to have some early nerves between these teams. The lights will be super bright on the biggest stage in baseball, and frankly, neither of these teams are very used to it. Sure, they’ve played a lot of postseason games to date, but this is an entirely different level.

Gallen and Eovaldi are strong pitchers, and they should both be well ahead of the batters, at least the 1st or 2nd time through the order. Go low in the first 5 innings, and feel confident in doing so.

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