The No. 25 Wisconsin Badgers (2-2) visit the No. 18 Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2) for a battle for the Heartland Trophy Saturday at Kinnick Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Wisconsin-Iowa college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Badgers are ranked No. 25, and the Hawkeyes are No. 18 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Wisconsin at Iowa: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated 8:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Wisconsin -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Iowa +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Wisconsin -2.5 (-110) | Iowa +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 41.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Wisconsin at Iowa: Three things to know
- Wisconsin lost last week to Indiana, 14-6 at home, as 12-point favorites for its second consecutive loss. It has been a weird season for Wisconsin who has had two different extended layoffs due to COVID complications. The Badgers averaged 47 points in their first two games and 6.5 points in their last two.
- After dropping its first two games, Iowa has rattled off five straight wins, covering four of those games, including as 13.5-point favorites in last week’s 35-21 victory at Illinois.
- The Badgers have dominated this rivalry in recent seasons, winning seven of the last eight meetings, and covering three of the last four, against the Hawkeyes.
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Wisconsin at Iowa: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Wisconsin 20, Iowa 17
Money line (ML)
The puzzling line movement leads toward Wisconsin. According to Pregame.com, 56% of the money wagered is on Wisconsin, and 57% of the bets placed are on Iowa.
However, despite the split action, the House has moved the line from the Badgers from a slight underdog (-103) to the current listed price. The only insight I can glean from that is the bookmakers agree that Wisconsin should’ve been favored in the first place.
A big reason for Wisconsin still getting love from the House is its defense is arguably the best in the nation. The Badgers are first in opponent’s points per game, opponent’s yards per game, opponent’s third-down conversion percentage and sixth in opponent’s red zone scoring percentage.
This is the cheapest the Badgers have been in the sports betting market all year, and I am BETTING WISCONSIN (-130) for 1 unit.
Against the spread (ATS)
PASS ON THE SPREAD.
I’d rather spend a little more than deal with the mental anguish of Wisconsin only winning by a point or two and losing because I was playing the spread.
Over/Under (O/U)
For all the credit Wisconsin’s defense is due, let’s show Iowa’s defense some love, too. The Hawkeyes rank fifth in opponent’s points per play and opponent’s in yards per play, and have 16 takeaways with a plus-8 in turnover differential.
Also, the weather might help ground these offenses. The weather forecast around game time is for temperatures to be around freezing with close to 15 MPH winds and a chance of some snow.
The UNDER 41.5 (-115) for 1 unit is probably my favorite play in the battle for the Heartland Trophy.
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