With Jayden Daniels and Mike Denbrock gone, how explosive will LSU be in 2024?
LSU was college football’s most explosive offense in 2023. It wasn’t that close either with 17% of the Tigers’ plays accounting for 20+ yards or a touchdown. The next best was USC at 13.5%.
LSU’s level of explosiveness came somewhat as a surprise. The unit was expected to be good returning players like [autotag]Jayden Daniels[/autotag], [autotag]Malik Nabers[/autotag] and [autotag]Will Campbell[/autotag], but LSU made its money in 2022 by being efficient, even when it wasn’t explosive.
2023 was a different story. LSU came out firing and Daniels’ became the best downfield passer in the sport on his way to winning the Heisman trophy.
But a lot of the elements that made last fall’s offense dangerous are gone. Daniels, Nabers and [autotag]Brian Thomas Jr.[/autotag] are playing professional football while offensive coordinator [autotag]Mike Denbrock[/autotag] returned to Notre Dame. All that means LSU will have a new playcaller, a new quarterback, and new go-to receivers this fall.
Explosive plays are variable from year to year. There’s some correlation, but the metric isn’t as stable than success rate and EPA. Some of that has to do with sample size. With explosive plays, you’re only looking at a select few plays across the entirety of a season.
That can make explosiveness tough to predict, especially in LSU’s case with all the turnover on offense.
However, this offense appears capable of keeping the big-play trend going in Baton Rouge. Quarterback [autotag]Garrett Nussmeier[/autotag], despite trying to shake the label at times, is a gunslinger. He’s not afraid to let it fly.
Receiver is perhaps a bigger question. Nabers led the country in 20+ yard catches while Thomas led the nation in touchdowns. That level of big play creation from a receiving duo is rare and nearly impossible to repeat. In all likelihood, LSU won’t get that level of production in 2024, but [autotag]Kyren Lacy[/autotag] and [autotag]CJ Daniels[/autotag] are no strangers to the long ball.
Lacy averaged 18.6 yards per catch, which ranked third in the SEC. Daniels was even better at 19.3 yards per catch, putting him top 20 nationally.
The last time [autotag]Joe Sloan[/autotag] was a full-time play-caller in 2020 and 2021, he didn’t show a propensity to take downfield shots. But that could be more related to the system and personnel at Louisiana Tech than anything else.
When he called plays in the bowl game against Wisconsin, Nussmeier threw 10 passes with 20+ air yards. Sloan has a QB he trusts to dial them up.
The most significant drop in explosiveness could be the run game. Last year, Daniels ripped off big runs from the QB position, ranking second nationally with 20 runs of 20+ yards. Nussmeier doesn’t have the same ability with his legs and LSU lost RB [autotag]Logan Diggs[/autotag], who was second on the team in 10+ yard runs.
This offense is going to score points, there’s no question about that. But the way LSU goes about doing it might be a little different. I still expect this to be one of the SEC’s top units when it comes to creating big plays, but there will be games when LSU needs to rely on the ruthless efficiency of the offensive line.
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